Category Archives: Lit Review

Phil 1.28.18

Rain!

  • A full-throated defense of simulation from Joanna Bryson in Artificial Intelligence and Pro-Social Behaviour (pg 290)
    • The role of simulations in science has been at times confused, not only by occasional bad practice (as with any method), but also by claims by some of the method’s innovators that simulations were a “third way” to do science (after induction and deduction, Axelrod 1997 ). However, more recently a consensus has been reached that simulation and modelling more generally are indeed a part of ordinary science (Dunbar 2002 ; Kokko 2007 ; Seth et al. 2012). The part that they are is theory building. Every model is a theory—a very-well specified theory. In the case of simulations, the models are theories expressed in so much detail that their consequences can be checked by execution on a computer. Science requires two things: theories that explain the world, and data about the world which can be used to compare and validate the theories. A simulation provides no data about the world, but it can provide a great deal of ‘data’ about a theory. First, the very process of constructing a simulation can show that a theory is incoherent—internally contradictory, or incomplete, making no account for some part of the system intended to be explained (Axelrod 1997 ; Whitehouse et al. 2012 ). Secondly, modelling in general can show us a fuller range of consequences for a theory. This allows us to make specific, formal hypotheses about processes too complex to entirely conceptualise inside a single human brain (Dunbar 2002 ; Kokko 2007 ). The wide-spread acceptance of simulations as a part of the scientific method can be seen by their inclusion in the highest levels of academic publication, both in the leading general science journals and in the flagship journals for specific fields ranging from biology through political science. Fortunately, a theory expressed formally as a simulation can also be expressed in the traditional, informal, ordinary-language way as well.
  • Also this, from the same article:
    • Recently in the megafauna literature there has been a new hypothesis: individuals in populations might benefit from information transmission, of which vigilance against predators is just a special case (Crockford et al. 2012 ; Chivers and Ferrari 2014 ; Hogan and Laskowski 2013 ; Derex et al. 2013 ). Transmission of behaviour may be at least as important as information about localised threats (Jaeggi et al. 2008 ; Dimitriu et al. 2014 ). Note that behaviour itself, when transmitted horizontally (that is, not by genes to offspring), must be transmitted as information via perception (Shannon 2001 ).
  • On Discovering the Number of Document Topics via Conceptual Latent Space
    • Topic modeling is a widely used technique in knowledge discovery and data mining. However, finding the right number of topics in a given text source has remained a challenging issue. In this paper, we study the concept of conceptual stability via nonnegative matrix factorization. Based on this finding, we propose a method to identify the correct number of topics and offer empirical evidence in its favor in terms of classification accuracy and the number of topics that are naturally present in the text sources. Experiments on real-world text corpora demonstrate that the proposed method has outperformed state-of-the-art latent Dirichlet allocation and nonnegative matrix factorization models.
  • Beyond the Ranked List: User-Driven Exploration and Diversification of Social Recommendation
    • The beyond-relevance objectives of recommender systems have been drawing more and more attention. For example, a diversity-enhanced interface has been shown to associate positively with overall levels of user satisfaction. However, little is known about how users adopt diversity-enhanced interfaces to accomplish various real-world tasks. In this paper, we present two attempts at creating a visual diversity-enhanced interface that presents recommendations beyond a simple ranked list. Our goal was to design a recommender system interface to help users explore the different relevance prospects of recommended items in parallel and to stress their diversity. Two within-subject user studies in the context of social recommendation at academic conferences were conducted to compare our visual interfaces. Results from our user study show that the visual interfaces significantly reduced the exploration efforts required for given tasks and helped users to perceive the recommendation diversity. We show that the users examined a diverse set of recommended items while experiencing an improvement in overall user satisfaction. Also, the users’ subjective evaluations show significant improvement in many user-centric metrics. Experiences are discussed that shed light on avenues for future interface designs.
  • Setting up a Dissertation main points page on Phlog
  • This is an interesting map, from allgeneralizationsarefalse.commedia-bias-chart_3-0_hi-res
  • Don’t know what to do with this, but wow: Audio Adversarial Examples: Targeted Attacks on Speech-to-Text
    • We construct targeted audio adversarial examples on automatic speech recognition. Given any audio waveform, we can produce another that is over 99.9% similar, but transcribes as any phrase we choose (at a rate of up to 50 characters per second). We apply our iterative optimization-based attack to Mozilla’s implementation DeepSpeech end-to-end, and show it has a 100% success rate. The feasibility of this attack introduce a new domain to study adversarial examples.

Phil 1.25.18

ASRC MKT 7:00 –

  • Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto, tell us your secret (good article on recognizing behavior patterns, rather than words)
    • Everybody that has an interest in influencing public opinion will happily pay a handful of Dollars to amplify their voices. Governments, political groups, corporations, traders, and just simple plain trolls will continue to shout through bot armies—as long as it is so cheap. Bots are cheaper than buying ad space, less risky than a network of spies, more efficient and less prone to failure than creating 50 fake accounts by hand. If bots could be identified and tagged, the fake news industry would suffer a heavy blow. Here is how we can make this happen.
  • More Angular
  • Wireframing with Jeremy

Phil 1.24.18

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC MKT

  • H1: Groups are defined by a common location, orientation, and velocity (LOV) through a navigable physical or cognitive space. The amount of group cohesion and identification is proportional to the amount of similarity along all three axis.
  • H2: Group Behavior emerges from mutual influence, based on awareness and trust. Mutual influence is facilitated by Dimension Reduction: The lower the number of dimensions, the easier it is to produce a group.
  • H3: Group behavior has three distinct patterns: Nomadic, Flocking and Stampeding. These behaviors are dictated by the level of trust and awareness between individuals having similar LOVs
    • H3a: The trustworthiness of the underlying information space can be inferred from the group behaviors through belief space. All agents  seek out fitness peaks (reward gradients) and avoids valleys (risk gradients) within the space. (Risk = negative heading alignment, increase speed. Reward = positive heading alignment, decrease speed.)
      • Nomadic emphasizes environmental gradients as an individual or small group of agents. This supports the broadest awareness of the belief space, though it may be difficult to infer fitness peaks. Gradient discovery is  less influences by additional social effects,
      • Flocking behavior results from environmentally constrained social gradient seeking. For example, distance attenuates social influence. If an agent finds a risk or reward, that information cascades through the population as a function of the environmental constraints. (Note: In-group and out group could be manifestations of pure social gradient creation.)
      • Stampede emphasizes social gradients. This becomes easier as groups become larger and a strong ‘social reality’ occurs. When social influence is dominant at the expense of environmental awareness, a runaway stampede can occur. The beliefs and associated information that underlie a stampede can be inferred to be untrustworthy.
  • H4: Individual trajectories through these spaces, when combined with large numbers of other individual trajectories produce maps which reflect the dimensions that define the groups in that space.
  • These conclusions can be derived though
  • Continuing with BIC
    • GroupIdentification
  • Fundamentals of Data Visualization
    • I’m very excited to announce my latest project, a book on data visualization. The working title is “Fundamentals of Data Visualization”. The book will be published with O’Reilly, and a preview is available here. The entire book is written in R Markdown, and the figures are made with ggplot2. The source for the book is available on github.
  • Sex differences in the use of social information emerge under conditions of risk
    • Social learning provides an effective route to gaining up-to-date information, particularly when information is costly to obtain asocially. Theoretical work predicts that the willingness to switch between using asocial and social sources of information will vary between individuals according to their risk tolerance. We tested the prediction that, where there are sex differences in risk tolerance, altering the variance of the payoffs of using asocial and social information differentially influences the probability of social information use by sex. In a computer-based task that involved building a virtual spaceship, men and women (N = 88) were given the option of using either asocial or social sources of information to improve their performance. When the asocial option was risky (i.e., the participant’s score could markedly increase or decrease) and the social option was safe (i.e., their score could slightly increase or remain the same), women, but not men, were more likely to use the social option than the asocial option. In all other conditions, both women and men preferentially used the asocial option to a similar degree. 
  • Thinking Fast and Slow on Networks: Co-evolution of Cognition and Cooperation in Structured Populations
    •  In line with past work in well-mixed populations, we find that selection favors either the intuitive defector (ID) strategy which never deliberates, or the dual-process cooperator (DC) strategy which intuitively cooperates but uses deliberation to switch to defection in Prisoner’s Dilemma games. We find that sparser networks (i.e. smaller average degree) facilitate the success of DC over ID, while also reducing the level of deliberation that DC agents engage in; and that these results generalize across different kinds of networks.
  • Joanna J Bryson 7:30 AM – 24 Jan 2018: This didn’t happen because humans are evil. It happens because intelligence is computation—an expensive physical process—and therefore limited. Thread very worth reading.
  • A bit more Angular
  • Compared the speed of execution for LSTM on my and Aaron’s boxes. His newer card is a bit faster than my TITAN
  • Most of the day was spent putting together the ppt for the ML/AI workshop on Monday

Phil 1.23.18

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC MKT

  • Lesser-known trolley problem variations
  • News presented as a list: The 270 people connected to the Russia probes
  • continuing BIC
    • Group as Frame
    • Categorizatino and bias
  • Groups are defined by a common location, orientation, and velocity through a physical or virtual space. They influence each other dependent on awareness and trust. The lower the number of dimensions, the easier it is to produce a group.
  • Russia’s Full Spectrum Propaganda
    • This post examines one full spectrum case to illustrate the method. @DFRLab examined this case in an earlier post; since then, further evidence emerged, which changed and improved our understanding of the technique.
  • More Angular. Nice progress. I had some issues where I wanted to keep an old version of the app directory and did a refactor. This (of course) refactored the calling program, so I broke quite a few things figuring it out. That being said, Angular 1.5 is really, really nice.
  • Long chat about handling Trolls in the discussion app

Phil 1.19.18

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC

  • Look! Adversarial Herding: https://twitter.com/katestarbird/status/954802718018686976
  • Reconnected with Wayne. Arranging a time to meet the week of the 29th. Sent him a copy of the winter sim conference paper
  • Continuing with Beyond Individual Choice. Actually, wound up adding a section on how attention and awareness interplay, and how high social trust makes for much more efficient way to approach games such as the prisoner’s dilemma on my thoughts about trust and awareness
  • Starting Angular course
    • Architecture overview
  • Meeting with Jeremy, Heath and Aaron on Project structure/setup
  • More Angular. Yarn requires Python 2.x, which I hope doesn’t break my Python 3.x
  • Could not get the project to serve once built
  • Adversarial herding via The Opposition
    • Clint WattsClint is a consultant and researcher modeling and forecasting threat actor behavior and developing countermeasures for disrupting and defeating state and non-state actors. As a consultant, Clint designs and implements customized training and research programs for military, intelligence and law enforcement organizations at the federal, state and local level. In the private sector, he helps financial institutions develop best practices in cybersecurity intelligence operations. His research predominately focuses on terrorism forecasting and trends seeking to anticipate emerging extremist hotspots and anticipate appropriate counterterrorism responses. More recently, Clint used modeling to outline Russian influence operations via social media and the Kremlin’s return to Active Measures.

Phil 1.18.2018

7:30 – 4:30 ASRC MKT

  • Truth Decay (RAND corporation ebook)
    • An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life
  • Reading more Beyond Individual Choice
    • TheoryDemands
  • Got my Angular setup running. Thanks, Jeremy!
  • Reading up on WSO2 IaaS – Done. Did not know that was a thing.
  • Helped Aaron a bit with his dev box horror show
  • Spent a good chunk of the afternoon jumping through hoops to get an online Angular course approved. It seems as though you get approval, send it to HR(?), buy (it) yourself, then submit the expense through Concur. That’s totally efficient…

Phil 1.17.18

 

7:00 – 3:30 ASRC MKT

  • Harbinger, another DiscussionGame comparable: We are investigating how people make predictions and how to improve forecasting of current events.
  • Working over time, constructing a project based on beliefs and ideas, can be regarded as working with a group of yourself. You communicate with your future self through construction. You perceive your past self through artifacts. Polarization should happen here as a matter of course, since the social similarity (and therefore influence) is very high.
  • Back to Beyond Individual Choice
    • Diagonals
    • Salience
  • Back to Angular – prepping for integration of PolarizationGame into the A2P platform. Speaking of which, there needs to be a REST API that will support registered, (optionally?) identified bots. A bot that is able to persuade a group of people over time to reach a unanimous vote would be an interesting Turing-style test. And a prize
    • Got Tour of Heroes running again, though it seems broken…
  • Nice chat with Jeremy.
    • He’ll talk to Heath about what it would take to set up an A2P instance for the discussion system that could scale to millions of players
    • Also mentioned that there would need to be a REST interface for bots
    • Look through Material Design
      • Don’t see any direct Forum (threaded discussion) details on the home site, but I found this Forum example GIF
    • Add meeting with Heath and Jeremy early in the sprint to lay out initial detailed design
    • Stub out non-functional pages as a deliverable for this (next?) sprint
    • He sent me an email with all the things to set up. Got the new Node, Yarn and CLI on my home machine. Will do that again tomorrow and test the VPN connections
  • Sprint planning
    • A2P GUI and Detailed Design are going to overlap

Phil 1.16.2018

ASRC MKT 7:00 – 4:30

  • Tit for tat in heterogeneous populations
    • The “iterated prisoner’s dilemma” is now the orthodox paradigm for the evolution of cooperation among selfish individuals. This viewpoint is strongly supported by Axelrod’s computer tournaments, where ‘tit for tat’ (TFT) finished first. This has stimulated interest in the role of reciprocity in biological societies. Most theoretical investigations, however, assumed homogeneous populations (the setting for evolutionary stable strategies) and programs immune to errors. Here we try to come closer to the biological situation by following a program that takes stochasticities into account and investigates representative samples. We find that a small fraction of TFT players is essential for the emergence of reciprocation in a heterogeneous population, but only paves the way for a more generous strategy. TFT is the pivot, rather than the aim, of an evolution towards cooperation.
    • It’s a Nature Note, so a quick read. In this case, the transition is from AllD->TFT->GTFT, where evolution stops.
  • A strategy of win-stay, lose-shift that outperforms tit-for-tat in the Prisoner’s Dilemma game
    • The Prisoner’s Dilemma is the leading metaphor for the evolution of cooperative behaviour in populations of selfish agents, especially since the well-known computer tournaments of Axelrod and their application to biological communities. In Axelrod’s simulations, the simple strategy tit-for-tat did outstandingly well and subsequently became the major paradigm for reciprocal altruism. Here we present extended evolutionary simulations of heterogeneous ensembles of probabilistic strategies including mutation and selection, and report the unexpected success of another protagonist: Pavlov. This strategy is as simple as tit-for-tat and embodies the fundamental behavioural mechanism win-stay, lose-shift, which seems to be a widespread rule. Pavlov’s success is based on two important advantages over tit-for-tat: it can correct occasional mistakes and exploit unconditional cooperators. This second feature prevents Pavlov populations from being undermined by unconditional cooperators, which in turn invite defectors. Pavlov seems to be more robust than tit-for-tat, suggesting that cooperative behaviour in natural situations may often be based on win-stay, lose-shift.
    • win-stay = exploit, lose-shift = explore
  • Five rules for the evolution of cooperation
    • Cooperation is needed for evolution to construct new levels of organization. The emergence of genomes, cells, multi-cellular organisms, social insects and human society are all based on cooperation. Cooperation means that selfish replicators forgo some of their reproductive potential to help one another. But natural selection implies competition and therefore opposes cooperation unless a specific mechanism is at work. Here I discuss five mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation: kin selection, direct reciprocity, indirect reciprocity, network reciprocity and group selection. For each mechanism, a simple rule is derived which specifies whether natural selection can lead to cooperation.
  • Added a paragraph to the previous work section to include Tit-for-Tat and Milti-armed Bandit previous work.
  • Worked with Aaron on setting up sprint goals

Phil 1.15.18

7:00 – 3:30 ASRC MKT

  • Individual mobility and social behaviour: Two sides of the same coin
    • According to personality psychology, personality traits determine many aspects of human behaviour. However, validating this insight in large groups has been challenging so far, due to the scarcity of multi-channel data. Here, we focus on the relationship between mobility and social behaviour by analysing two high-resolution longitudinal datasets collecting trajectories and mobile phone interactions of ∼ 1000 individuals. We show that there is a connection between the way in which individuals explore new resources and exploit known assets in the social and spatial spheres. We point out that different individuals balance the exploration-exploitation trade-off in different ways and we explain part of the variability in the data by the big five personality traits. We find that, in both realms, extraversion correlates with an individual’s attitude towards exploration and routine diversity, while neuroticism and openness account for the tendency to evolve routine over long time-scales. We find no evidence for the existence of classes of individuals across the spatio-social domains. Our results bridge the fields of human geography, sociology and personality psychology and can help improve current models of mobility and tie formation.
    • This work has ways of identifying explorers and exploiters programmatically.
    • Exploit
    • SocialSpatial
  • Reading the Google Brain team’s year in review in two parts
    • From part two: We have also teamed up with researchers at leading healthcare organizations and medical centers including StanfordUCSF, and University of Chicago to demonstrate the effectiveness of using machine learning to predict medical outcomes from de-identified medical records (i.e. given the current state of a patient, we believe we can predict the future for a patient by learning from millions of other patients’ journeys, as a way of helping healthcare professionals make better decisions). We’re very excited about this avenue of work and we look to forward to telling you more about it in 2018
    • FacetsFacets contains two robust visualizations to aid in understanding and analyzing machine learning datasets. Get a sense of the shape of each feature of your dataset using Facets Overview, or explore individual observations using Facets Dive.
  • Found this article on LSTM-based prediction for robots and sent it to Aaron: Deep Episodic Memory: Encoding, Recalling, and Predicting Episodic Experiences for Robot Action Execution
  • Working through Beyond Individual Choice – Actually, wound up going Complexity LabsGame Theory course
    • Social traps are stampedes? Sliding reinforcers (lethal barrier)
    • The transition from Tit-for-tat (TFT) to generous TFT to cooperate always, to defect always has similarities to the excessive social trust stampede as well.
    • Unstable cycling vs. evolutionarily stable strategies
    • Replicator dynamic model: Explore/Exploit
      • In mathematics, the replicator equation is a deterministic monotone non-linear and non-innovative game dynamic used in evolutionary game theory. The replicator equation differs from other equations used to model replication, such as the quasispecies equation, in that it allows the fitness function to incorporate the distribution of the population types rather than setting the fitness of a particular type constant. This important property allows the replicator equation to capture the essence of selection. Unlike the quasispecies equation, the replicator equation does not incorporate mutation and so is not able to innovate new types or pure strategies.
    • Fisher’s Fundamental Theorem “The rate of increase in fitness of any organism at any time is equal to its genetic variance in fitness at that time.
    • Explorers are a form of weak ties, which is one of the reasons they add diversity. Exploiters are strong ties
  • I also had a thought about the GPM simulator. I could add an evolutionary component that would let agents breed, age and die to see if Social Influence Horizon and Turn Rate are selected towards any attractor. My guess is that there is a tension between explorers and stampeders that can be shown to occur over time.

Phil 1.13.18

I think that burst-coast may be another one of those general patterns in collective intelligence

  • Disentangling and modeling interactions in fish with burst-and-coast swimming reveal distinct alignment and attraction behaviors
    • The development of tracking methods for automatically quantifying individual behavior and social interactions in animal groups has open up new perspectives for building quantitative and predictive models of collective behavior. In this work, we combine extensive data analyses with a modeling approach to measure, disentangle, and reconstruct the actual functional form of interactions involved in the coordination of swimming in Rummy-nose tetra (Hemigrammus rhodostomus). This species of fish performs burst-and-coast swimming behavior that consists of sudden heading changes combined with brief accelerations followed by quasi-passive, straight decelerations. We quantify the spontaneous stochastic behavior of a fish and the interactions that govern wall avoidance and the reaction to a neighboring fish, the latter by exploiting general symmetry constraints for the interactions. In contrast with previous experimental works, we find that both attraction and alignment behaviors control the reaction of fish to a neighbor. We then exploit these results to build a model of spontaneous burst-and-coast swimming and interactions of fish, with all parameters being estimated or directly measured from experiments. This model quantitatively reproduces the key features of the motion and spatial distributions observed in experiments with a single fish and with two fish. This demonstrates the power of our method that exploits large amounts of data for disentangling and fully characterizing the interactions that govern collective behaviors in animals groups.

Phil 1.8.18

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC MKT

  • Complexity Explorables
    • This page is part of the Research on Complex Systems Group at the Institute for Theoretical Biology at Humboldt University of Berlin.The site is designed for people interested in complex dynamical processes. The Explorables are carefully chosen in such a way that the key elements of their behavior can be explored and explained without too much math (There are a few exceptions) and with as few words as possible.
    • Orli’s Flock’n Roll (Adjustable variables, but just having the alignment radius doesn’t have the same effect. Maybe a function of the slew rate?
      • This explorable illustrates of an intuitive dynamic model for collective motion (swarming) in animal groups. The model can be used to describe collective behavior observed in schooling fish or flocking birds, for example. The details of the model are described in a 2002 paper by Iain Couzin and colleagues.
  • Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems can Contribute
    • We discuss models and data of crowd disasters, crime, terrorism, war and disease spreading to show that conventional recipes, such as deterrence strategies, are often not effective and sufficient to contain them. Many common approaches do not provide a good picture of the actual system behavior, because they neglect feedback loops, instabilities and cascade effects. The complex and often counter-intuitive behavior of social systems and their macro-level collective dynamics can be better understood by means of complexity science. We highlight that a suitable system design and management can help to stop undesirable cascade effects and to enable favorable kinds of self-organization in the system. In such a way, complexity science can help to save human lives.
  • Fooled around with the model definition section in the paper to bring forward the rate limited heading a bit.
  • Had to fix several bug in the DC paper
  • Worked with Aaron a lot on tweaking the introduction. T is reading it now. Assuming it’s done, the only thing remaining is the conclusion

Phil 1.4.17

7:00 – 3:00 ASRC MKT

  • Confidence modulates exploration and exploitation in value-based learning
    • Uncertainty is ubiquitous in cognitive processing, which is why agents require a precise handle on how to deal with the noise inherent in their mental operations. Previous research suggests that people possess a remarkable ability to track and report uncertainty, often in the form of confidence judgments. Here, we argue that humans use uncertainty inherent in their representations of value beliefs to arbitrate between exploration and exploitation. Such uncertainty is reflected in explicit confidence judgments. Using a novel variant of a multi-armed bandit paradigm, we studied how beliefs were formed and how uncertainty in the encoding of these value beliefs (belief confidence) evolved over time. We found that people used uncertainty to arbitrate between exploration and exploitation, reflected in a higher tendency towards exploration when their confidence in their value representations was low. We furthermore found that value uncertainty can be linked to frameworks of metacognition in decision making in two ways. First, belief confidence drives decision confidence — that is people’s evaluation of their own choices. Second, individuals with higher metacognitive insight into their choices were also better at tracing the uncertainty in their environment. Together, these findings argue that such uncertainty representations play a key role in the context of cognitive control.

  • Artificial Intelligence, AI in 2018 and beyond
    • Eugenio Culurciello
    • These are my opinions on where deep neural network and machine learning is headed in the larger field of artificial intelligence, and how we can get more and more sophisticated machines that can help us in our daily routines. Please note that these are not predictions of forecasts, but more a detailed analysis of the trajectory of the fields, the trends and the technical needs we have to achieve useful artificial intelligence. Not all machine learning is targeting artificial intelligences, and there are low-hanging fruits, which we will examine here also.
  • Synthetic Experiences: How Popular Culture Matters for Images of International Relations
    • Many researchers assert that popular culture warrants greater attention from international relations scholars. Yet work regarding the effects of popular culture on international relations has so far had a marginal impact. We believe that this gap leads mainstream scholars both to exaggerate the influence of canonical academic sources and to ignore the potentially great influence of popular culture on mass and elite audiences. Drawing on work from other disciplines, including cognitive science and psychology, we propose a theory of how fictional narratives can influence real actors’ behavior. As people read, watch, or otherwise consume fictional narratives, they process those stories as if they were actually witnessing the phenomena those narratives describe, even if those events may be unlikely or impossible. These “synthetic experiences” can change beliefs, reinforce preexisting views, or even displace knowledge gained from other sources for elites as well as mass audiences. Because ideas condition how agents act, we argue that international relations theorists should take seriously how popular culture propagates and shapes ideas about world politics. We demonstrate the plausibility of our theory by examining the influence of the US novelist Tom Clancy on issues such as US relations with the Soviet Union and 9/11.
  • Continuing with paper tweaking. Added T’s comments, and finished Methods.

Phil 1.3.18

Well, it didn’t take long at all for 2018 to trend radioactive…

Jan2_2018_Trump

7:00 – 4:30 ASRC MKT

  • Behavioural and Evolutionary Theory Lab. Check the publications and the venues
  • A bit on the idea that Neural Coupling is an aspect of the Willing Suspension of Disbelief.
  • More tweaking on the paper. Waaaaaayyyyyy to many “We” in the abstract. Done through modeling.
  • Need to generate nomadic, flocking, and stampede generated maps. Done! See below.
  • Redo the proposal so that the Tile View is the central navigation scheme with aspects for users, topics, ratings, etc. Done
  • Generated data for Aaron’s ML sessions. Planned upgrading my box so we can run things on the Titan card
  • Some more results from the belief space mapping effort. Each map is constructed from a 100 sample run over the same 10×10 grid after the simulation stabilized:
    • Here’s a quick overview of the populations: ThreePopulations
    • Stable Nomad behavior map: nomad-stableGood overall coverage as you would expect. Some places have more visitors (the bright spots), but there are no gaps in the belief space.
    • Stable Flocking behavior map: flocking-stableWe can see gaps start to appear in the belief space, but the overall grid structure is still visible at the center of the network where the flock spent most of its time. This is also evident in the bright ring of nodes that represents the cells that the flock traversed while it was orbiting the center area.
    • Stable stampede behavior map: stampede-stableHere, the relationship of the trajectories to the underlying coordinate frame is completely lost. In this case, the boundary of the simulation was reflective, so the stampede bounces around the simulation space. The reason that there is a loop rather than a line is because the tight cluster of agents crossed its path at some point.
  • What could be interesting it to overlay the other graphs on the nomad-produced map. We could see the popular (exploitable) sections of the flocking population while also seeing the areas visited by the stampede. The assumption is that the stampede is engaged in untrustworthy behavior, so those parts would be marked as ‘dangerous’, while the flocking areas would marked as a region of ‘conventional wisdom’ or normative behavior.

Phil 1.2.18

7:00 – 3:30 ASRC MKT

  • Star wars link for Thursday
  • Selective Exposure to Misinformation: Evidence from the consumption of fake news during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign
    • Andrew M. Guess 
    • Brendan Nyhan
    • Jason Reifler
    • Though some warnings about online “echo chambers” have been hyperbolic, tendencies toward selective exposure to politically congenial content are likely to extend to misinformation and to be exacerbated by social media platforms. We test this prediction using data on the factually dubious articles known as “fake news.” Using unique data combining survey responses with individual-level web trac histories, we estimate that approximately 1 in 4 Americans visited a fake news website from October 7-November 14, 2016. Trump supporters visited the most fake news websites, which were overwhelmingly pro-Trump. However, fake news consumption was heavily concentrated among a small group — almost 6 in 10 visits to fake news websites came from the 10% of people with the most conservative online information diets. We also find that Facebook was a key vector of exposure to fake news and that fact-checks of fake news almost never reached its consumers.
  • Via Kate Starbird: The Elusive Backfire Effect: Mass Attitudes’ Steadfast Factual Adherence
    • Can citizens heed factual information, even when such information challenges their partisan and ideological attachments? The “backfire effect,” described by Nyhan and Reifler (2010), says no: rather than simply ignoring factual information, presenting respondents with facts can compound their ignorance. In their study, conservatives presented with factual information about the absence of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq became more convinced that such weapons had been found. The present paper presents results from five experiments in which we enrolled more than 10,100 subjects and tested 52 issues of potential backfire. Across all experiments, we found no corrections capable of triggering backfire, despite testing precisely the kinds of polarized issues where backfire should be expected. Evidence of factual backfire is far more tenuous than prior research suggests. By and large, citizens heed factual information, even when such information challenges their ideological commitments.
  • Stanford political scientist studies apocalyptic political rhetoric <- dimension reduction
    • Stanford political scientist Alison McQueen’s research shows that apocalyptic rhetoric can make wars, natural disasters, economic collapse and even the possibility of nuclear war easier to understand. But although it can rouse people to action, apocalyptic rhetoric also carries great peril.
    • Political Realism in Apocalyptic Times
  • The Concept of Narrative as a Fundamental for Human Agent-Based Modeling
    • This paper introduces the concept of narrative and its construction into the structure of agent-based modeling, as an effective mechanism for representation of stochastic behavior by agents in the context of social phenomena that are governed by fundamental random processes. A theoretical foundation is offered, citing authorities from the narrative community and related biological, sociological and psychological fields. The fundamental properties of narratives and their relationships are described, and potentially useful lines of further research are posited.
  • Automotive Pishkin-style pileup: http://digg.com/video/thirty-car-pile-up
  • Full read-through of the edited paper. Minor edits so far.
  • Back to the Belief Space proposal

Phil 12.26.17

8:00 – 4:00 ASRC MKT

  • Gotta get a new keyboard
  • Working on the additional thoughts section. Add paragraph describing how the evolutionary benefits of groups are visible at nearly every level of interaction. However, with these benefits comes the additional burden of control. Evolution has provided mechanisms that are calibrated to match communication to the optimal(?) group behavior. This timeframe has been short-circuited by technology. Coordination based on the trust of a neighbor no longer works when the neighbor isn’t near.
    • Patchwork alignment?
    • Information and its use by animals in evolutionary ecology
      • Information is a crucial currency for animals from both a behavioural and evolutionary perspective. Adaptive behaviour relies upon accurate estimation of relevant ecological parameters; the better informed an individual, the better it can develop and adjust its behaviour to meet the demands of a variable world. Here, we focus on the burgeoning interest in the impact of ecological uncertainty on adaptation, and the means by which it can be reduced by gathering information, from both ‘passive’ and ‘responsive’ sources. Our overview demonstrates the value of adopting an explicitly informational approach, and highlights the components that one needs to develop useful approaches to studying information use by animals. We propose a quantitative framework, based on statistical decision theory, for analysing animal information use in evolutionary ecology. Our purpose is to promote an integrative approach to studying information use by animals, which is itself integral to adaptive animal behaviour and organismal biology.
    • Evolutionary Explanations for Cooperation
      • Natural selection favours genes that increase an organism’s ability to survive and reproduce. This would appear to lead to a world dominated by selfish behaviour. However, cooperation can be found at all levels of biological organisation: genes cooperate in genomes, organelles cooperate to form eukaryotic cells, cells cooperate to make multicellular organisms, bacterial parasites cooperate to overcome host defences, animals breed cooperatively, and humans and insects cooperate to build societies. Over the last 40 years, biologists have developed a theoretical framework that can explain cooperation at all these levels. Here, we summarise this theory, illustrate how it may be applied to real organisms and discuss future directions.
    • Thomas Valone (Scholar)
      • Much of Valone’s work in arid ecosystems has examined desertification and factors that affect the biodiversity. He is particularly interested in livestock effects on soil chemical and physical processes that then affect plant and animal populations. Valone’s examination of behavior is frequently centered on understanding how animals perceive their environment. Much of his behavioral work examines information use in social animals who differ from solitary individuals in that they can acquire public information to estimate the quality of resources by noting the activities of other individuals.
      • Group foraging, public information, and patch estimation
        • Public information is information about the quality of a patch that can be obtained by observing the foraging success of other individuals in that patch. I examine the influence of the use of public information on patch departure and foraging efficiency of group members. When groups depart a patch with the first individual to leave, the use of public information can prevent the underutilization of resource patches.
      • Public Information: From Nosy Neighbors to Cultural Evolution
        • Psychologists, economists, and advertising moguls have long known that human decision-making is strongly influenced by the behavior of others. A rapidly accumulating body of evidence suggests that the same is true in animals. Individuals can use information arising from cues inadvertently produced by the behavior of other individuals with similar requirements. Many of these cues provide public information about the quality of alternatives. The use of public information is taxonomically widespread and can enhance fitness. Public information can lead to cultural evolution, which we suggest may then affect biological evolution.
  • Get started on Polarization Game proposal. Include Moral Machine. Read the papers into LMN and started to poke at the structure.
  • Speaking of which, here’s a labeled map: LabeledMap
  • Which clearly provides more relational (map-ish) information than a word cloud using the same data: wordcloud