Category Archives: Writing

Phil 4.3.20

Temp is up a bit this morning, which, of course, I’m overreacting to.

Need to get started on State information from here: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-states.csv

Generated some favicons from here: https://favicon.io/favicon-generator/, which, of course we didn’t use

Getting close to something that we can release

GOES:

  • Update Linux on laptop and try Influx there. Nope. The laptop is hosed. hosed
  • Grabbing another computer to configure. I mean, worst case, I can set up the work laptop as an Ubuntu box. I’d love to know if Influx would work FIRST, though. Looks like I have to. My old dev box won’t boot. Backing up.
  • Installed Debian on the work laptop. It seems to be booting? Nope:
  • I guess we’ll try Ubuntu again? Nope. Trying one more variant.
  • Trying lubuntu. It uses different drivers for some things, and so far hasn’t frozen or blocked yet. It works!
  • And now the Docker version (docker run –name influxdb -p 9999:9999 quay.io/influxdb/influxdb:2.0.0-beta) works too. Maybe because the system got upgraded?
  • 11:00 IRAD Meeting
    • Send note about NOAA being a customer for simulated anomalies for machine learning

Phil 4.1.20

Working from home has a different rhythm. I work in segments with home chores mixed in. Today I’m doing this at 6:00, along with some coding. Then some morning exercise, breakfast, and work till noon. Ride, lunch and more work till about 3:00. By that time my brain is broken, and I take a break and do light chores. Today I may finally get my road bike ready for spring. Then simple work like commenting for a few hours. In the evenings I find I like watching shows about competent people fixing things and making them better. Bitchin’ Rides is extremely soothing.

D20:

  • Fixing dates
  • integrating the estimated deaths from rate and current deaths as area under the curve until zero.
  • Work on documentation. Also make sure word wrap works
  • This. Is. Bad.

Italy_4_1_2020

  • Once more, this is Italy. What I’ve done is round-tripped the rates to produce an estimate of total deaths. If calculating rates is taking the derivative, calculating a death prediction is integration. So, if the calculations are right, and Italy is at zero new deaths around April 17th, the toll is around 27 thousand total deaths. That’s 0.04% of the population. If those numbers hold for the US at 327 million, that’s a total of 145,550. The White House is estimating numbers of 100,000 to 240,000, which means their average prediction is that we will fare worse than Italy.
  • Fixed bugs, worked with Zach, made progress. Aaron is starting to appear again!

GOES

  • Tweak John’s slides
  • More on saving and restoring docker containers. I think I’m close. Then install InfluxDB and test if I can see the dashboard
  • Still having problems. I can create, run, add, delete, and tag the images, but I can’t run them. I think I’m getting ahead of myself. Back to reading

teminal

So it turns out that I was doing everything right but the load. Here’s how it works

  1. docker run container -it –name imagename some-os /bin/sh
  2. Install what needs to be installed. Poke around, save things, etc
  3. docker container commit imagename modified-os
  4. docker save modified-os> modified-os.tar
  5. docker rmi modified-os
  6. docker load < modified-os.tar
  7. docker run container -it –name imagename modified-os /bin/sh

teminal2

 

 

Phil 3.30.20

Today’s study in contrasts: Italy and the US:

COVID-19 projections for the US, from the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME):

IHME

Work on converting the ETS json file into spreadsheets to evaluate thresholds and labels – spreadsheet conversion is working. done! Now I need to figure out what those ETS parameters do!

Add a short bit to the D20 writeup that explains why linear interpolation isn’t the best option, and why we went with ETS – done

Work with Zach to get the website up today – working

Work this article into the exploit-space writeup: Why Is Cybersecurity Not a Human-Scale Problem Anymore?. Wow, actually, the company (Balbix) that was founded by the author (Gaurav Banga) seems to be doing most of what I was going to write about. Sent Darren a note to see if I should continue

Got a note from ProQuest saying my file needed to have blank pages at the beginning and end of the document. Fixed. And accepted!

  • Congratulations. Your submission, xxxxx has cleared all of the necessary checks and will soon be delivered to ProQuest for publishing.

Ok, back to Docker and building an InfluxDB image. Wow, that seems like a lifetime ago I was doing this

  • To save a custom image, create the container from a base image and then docker save image_name > image_name.tar. This puts it wherever you run the command in the system, Linux or Windows

#COVID-19 meeting at 1:30 today – proposal’s in. We have twitter data from January

SDaaS meeting at 4:00 today – postponed

Phil 3.12.20

7:00 – 6:00 ASRC GOES

Phil 3.11.20

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC GOES

  • A couple more paragraphs in the revisions
  • Working on the SDaaS paper. Getting close to finished
  • Mission meeting
    • Update status to delay deliverables
    • Still waiting on data
    • Simulation running – demo tomorrow
    • Evaluate against known yaw flip
    • White papers for John D
    • 20 sims so far
    • Need to install Influx, dammit!
    • Paragraph on 400 hrs
    • Paragraph on schedule
  • Sent Erik paragraphs

Phil 3.10.20

7:00 ASRC PhD

  • Good chat with Aaron M last night. I’ve incorporated comments into the new chapter
  • Put together a Saudi #corona doc
  • Meeting with Don today at 1:00
  • ML group in Hampden today

GOES

  • More SDaaS paper. Maybe finish first draft today?

Phil 2.28.20

7:00 – ASRC GOES

AirSim is a simulator for drones, cars and more, built on Unreal Engine (we now also have an experimental Unity release). It is open-source, cross platform, and supports hardware-in-loop with popular flight controllers such as PX4 for physically and visually realistic simulations. It is developed as an Unreal plugin that can simply be dropped into any Unreal environment. Similarly, we have an experimental release for a Unity plugin.

  • Added notes for the dissertation revisions
  • Working on the GVSETS paper – meeting at 3:00. Got everything into SVN and coordinated across machines.
  • Got Deep Learning with Tensorflow2 and Keras to start boning up on before the conference
  • Need to set some time aside for dissertation revisions
  • Keyword search for Shakespeare
  • Still need to fix the race conditions on file write and directory change
  • IRAD meeting. Signed up for Sim as a service, and exploit spaces white paper. Got John to pay for an Overleaf account

Phil 2.14.20

7:00 – 8:30 ASRC GOES

This document describes the Facebook Full URL shares dataset, resulting from a collaboration between Facebook and Social Science One. It is for Social Science One grantees and describes the dataset’s scope, structure, fields, and privacy-preserving characteristics. This is the second of two planned steps in the release of this “Full URLs dataset”, which we described at socialscience.one/blog/update-social-science-one.

Judging Truth

    • Deceptive claims surround us, embedded in fake news, advertisements, political propaganda, and rumors. How do people know what to believe? Truth judgments reflect inferences drawn from three types of information: base rates, feelings, and consistency with information retrieved from memory. First, people exhibit a bias to accept incoming information, because most claims in our environments are true. Second, people interpret feelings, like ease of processing, as evidence of truth. And third, people can (but do not always) consider whether assertions match facts and source information stored in memory. This three-part framework predicts specific illusions (e.g., truthiness, illusory truth), offers ways to correct stubborn misconceptions, and suggests the importance of converging cues in a post-truth world, where falsehoods travel further and faster than the truth.

       

 

  •  Dissertation
    • Practice! 52 minutes, 57 seconds
    • Maybe meeting with Wayne? Nope
  • Pack, move, unpack, setup
    • Bring ethernet cables! done
    • Moved out – done
    • Moved in – not done, but ready to unpack
  • Recovered my information for GSAW and TFDev
  • Write quick proposals for:
    • cybermap – done
    • Synthetic data as a service – done
    • White paper – kinda?

Phil 1.30.20

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC GOES

  • Antonio created an Overleaf project for ACSOS. Fixed the widthg of all the figures. Need to fix the tables and equations
  •  Dissertation
    • Fix the > \pagewidth equations
    • Slides
    • Get the timeline prev work slide updated for Kauffman, Martindale, and Bacharach (how did I do number lines?
  • Add December to status and send to T
  • Finish slide deck and paperwork for GSAW – done, I think
  • Meetings at NSOF
    • 1:30 Isaac
      • More discussion about simulators. We’re going to try running multiple sims this weekend with all even number wheels degraded at 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% and compare them to 100%
      • In future, set up synchronized tasks so we can run more often and iterate across all wheels
      • Reviewed slides. Making small fixes
    • 2:00 regular status

Phil 1.29.20

7:00 – 8:00 ASRC GOES

  • The Office of Inspector General conducted a review of the Chicago Police Department’s risk models known as the Strategic Subject List and Crime and Victimization Risk Model. CPD received $3.8 million in federal grants to develop these models, which were designed to predict the likelihood an individual would become a “party to violence”, i.e. the victim or offender in a shooting. The results of SSL were know n as “risk scores” while CVRM produced “risk tiers.” In August 2079, CPD informed OIG that it intended to decommission its PTV risk model program and did so on November l, 2079. The purpose of this advisory is to assess lessons learned and provide recommendations for future implementation of PTV risk models.
  • In “Towards a Human-like Open-Domain Chatbot”, we present Meena, a 2.6 billion parameter end-to-end trained neural conversational model. We show that Meena can conduct conversations that are more sensible and specific than existing state-of-the-art chatbots. (Google blog post)
  • Defense
    • Slides – started lit review
    • Drop off dissertation with Wayne
  • GSAW
    • Tweak slides – trying to get a good AIMS overview slide so I can
    • Walkthrough with T
    • Paperwork
  • GOES Meetings
    • Influx DB (Influx 2.0) is a high-performance data store written specifically for time series data. It allows for high throughput ingest, compression and real-time querying. InfluxDB is written entirely in Go and compiles into a single binary with no external dependencies. It provides write and query capabilities with a command-line interface, a built-in HTTP API, a set of client libraries (e.g., Go, Java, and JavaScript) and plugins for common data formats such as Telegraf, Graphite, Collectd and OpenTSDB. 
    • The plan is to have the sim place data from the sim into the Influx DB and have the dashboard display the plots
    • This will generate data: file:///D:/GOES/AIMS4_UI_Mock/3satellite-instrument-analysis.html?page=reportpage&channel=5&status=error, once the demo is unzipped into D:/GOES
  • Meeting with Wayne
    • Dropped off the dissertation
    • Got the reader form signed. Just needs Shimei and Aaron
    • Discussed slides. Can skim the parts that would be review from the proposal and status (but put a slide that says this)
    • Feb 10 as walkthrough? 6:00?

Phil 1.28.20

Make appt. to pick up Dad on Friday after PhD day – done

  • 655 West Baltimore St, Baltimore 21201

protest_mapThis Interactive Guide to Protest Campaigns around the World uses data on all violent and nonviolent campaigns around the world with maximalist claims from 1945–2014 and is based on the NAVCO 1.2 database, recently released by Erica Chenoweth and Christopher Wiley Shay. The data extend on the NAVCO data project, which you can read about (and download) at the project’s Dataverse.

Here’s a bird’s eye view of six state-backed information operations on Twitter, and how they evolved over the last decade. This research was funded by the Mozilla Foundation by an Open Source Support Award.

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC GOES

  • Defense
    • More slides
    • Picked up printed versions and dropped off copies with Shimei, Aaron, and Thom
  • GSAW
    • Change intro slide on GSAW to triangle of data, accuracy, and reliability – done
    • Reworked and tweaked. Walkthrough with T tomorrow.