Category Archives: Talks

Phil 4.1.20

Working from home has a different rhythm. I work in segments with home chores mixed in. Today I’m doing this at 6:00, along with some coding. Then some morning exercise, breakfast, and work till noon. Ride, lunch and more work till about 3:00. By that time my brain is broken, and I take a break and do light chores. Today I may finally get my road bike ready for spring. Then simple work like commenting for a few hours. In the evenings I find I like watching shows about competent people fixing things and making them better. Bitchin’ Rides is extremely soothing.

D20:

  • Fixing dates
  • integrating the estimated deaths from rate and current deaths as area under the curve until zero.
  • Work on documentation. Also make sure word wrap works
  • This. Is. Bad.

Italy_4_1_2020

  • Once more, this is Italy. What I’ve done is round-tripped the rates to produce an estimate of total deaths. If calculating rates is taking the derivative, calculating a death prediction is integration. So, if the calculations are right, and Italy is at zero new deaths around April 17th, the toll is around 27 thousand total deaths. That’s 0.04% of the population. If those numbers hold for the US at 327 million, that’s a total of 145,550. The White House is estimating numbers of 100,000 to 240,000, which means their average prediction is that we will fare worse than Italy.
  • Fixed bugs, worked with Zach, made progress. Aaron is starting to appear again!

GOES

  • Tweak John’s slides
  • More on saving and restoring docker containers. I think I’m close. Then install InfluxDB and test if I can see the dashboard
  • Still having problems. I can create, run, add, delete, and tag the images, but I can’t run them. I think I’m getting ahead of myself. Back to reading

teminal

So it turns out that I was doing everything right but the load. Here’s how it works

  1. docker run container -it –name imagename some-os /bin/sh
  2. Install what needs to be installed. Poke around, save things, etc
  3. docker container commit imagename modified-os
  4. docker save modified-os> modified-os.tar
  5. docker rmi modified-os
  6. docker load < modified-os.tar
  7. docker run container -it –name imagename modified-os /bin/sh

teminal2

 

 

Phil 1.30.20

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC GOES

  • Antonio created an Overleaf project for ACSOS. Fixed the widthg of all the figures. Need to fix the tables and equations
  •  Dissertation
    • Fix the > \pagewidth equations
    • Slides
    • Get the timeline prev work slide updated for Kauffman, Martindale, and Bacharach (how did I do number lines?
  • Add December to status and send to T
  • Finish slide deck and paperwork for GSAW – done, I think
  • Meetings at NSOF
    • 1:30 Isaac
      • More discussion about simulators. We’re going to try running multiple sims this weekend with all even number wheels degraded at 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% and compare them to 100%
      • In future, set up synchronized tasks so we can run more often and iterate across all wheels
      • Reviewed slides. Making small fixes
    • 2:00 regular status

Phil 1.29.20

7:00 – 8:00 ASRC GOES

  • The Office of Inspector General conducted a review of the Chicago Police Department’s risk models known as the Strategic Subject List and Crime and Victimization Risk Model. CPD received $3.8 million in federal grants to develop these models, which were designed to predict the likelihood an individual would become a “party to violence”, i.e. the victim or offender in a shooting. The results of SSL were know n as “risk scores” while CVRM produced “risk tiers.” In August 2079, CPD informed OIG that it intended to decommission its PTV risk model program and did so on November l, 2079. The purpose of this advisory is to assess lessons learned and provide recommendations for future implementation of PTV risk models.
  • In “Towards a Human-like Open-Domain Chatbot”, we present Meena, a 2.6 billion parameter end-to-end trained neural conversational model. We show that Meena can conduct conversations that are more sensible and specific than existing state-of-the-art chatbots. (Google blog post)
  • Defense
    • Slides – started lit review
    • Drop off dissertation with Wayne
  • GSAW
    • Tweak slides – trying to get a good AIMS overview slide so I can
    • Walkthrough with T
    • Paperwork
  • GOES Meetings
    • Influx DB (Influx 2.0) is a high-performance data store written specifically for time series data. It allows for high throughput ingest, compression and real-time querying. InfluxDB is written entirely in Go and compiles into a single binary with no external dependencies. It provides write and query capabilities with a command-line interface, a built-in HTTP API, a set of client libraries (e.g., Go, Java, and JavaScript) and plugins for common data formats such as Telegraf, Graphite, Collectd and OpenTSDB. 
    • The plan is to have the sim place data from the sim into the Influx DB and have the dashboard display the plots
    • This will generate data: file:///D:/GOES/AIMS4_UI_Mock/3satellite-instrument-analysis.html?page=reportpage&channel=5&status=error, once the demo is unzipped into D:/GOES
  • Meeting with Wayne
    • Dropped off the dissertation
    • Got the reader form signed. Just needs Shimei and Aaron
    • Discussed slides. Can skim the parts that would be review from the proposal and status (but put a slide that says this)
    • Feb 10 as walkthrough? 6:00?

Phil 1.28.20

Make appt. to pick up Dad on Friday after PhD day – done

  • 655 West Baltimore St, Baltimore 21201

protest_mapThis Interactive Guide to Protest Campaigns around the World uses data on all violent and nonviolent campaigns around the world with maximalist claims from 1945–2014 and is based on the NAVCO 1.2 database, recently released by Erica Chenoweth and Christopher Wiley Shay. The data extend on the NAVCO data project, which you can read about (and download) at the project’s Dataverse.

Here’s a bird’s eye view of six state-backed information operations on Twitter, and how they evolved over the last decade. This research was funded by the Mozilla Foundation by an Open Source Support Award.

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC GOES

  • Defense
    • More slides
    • Picked up printed versions and dropped off copies with Shimei, Aaron, and Thom
  • GSAW
    • Change intro slide on GSAW to triangle of data, accuracy, and reliability – done
    • Reworked and tweaked. Walkthrough with T tomorrow.

Phil 1.23.2020

7:00 – 6:00 ASRC GOES

Check Copenhagen Wheel serial number for this recall

  • Get comments back to Antonio tonight! – done
  •  Dissertation
    • Writing chapter summaries
      • Research design – done
      • Simulation – done
      • Adversarial herding – done
      • Belief space cartography – done
      • Human study – done
      • Discussion – done
      • Conclusions – done!
      • Sent pdfs to common vision. Need to set the pdfs out with a note tomorrow morning
    • Caught up with Wayne a bit and commented out the “Why this is HCC section” Keep it for a backup slide though
  • Very interesting Invisibilia on AI
  • GSAW prep
    • Registration
  • Told Aaron about OpML 20. It’s only two pages and due on Feb 25. Maybe a quick writeup of Optevolver?

Phil 1.22.20

7:00 – 6:00 ASRC GOES

Check Copenhagen Wheel serial number for this recall

Contact Dreamhost about missing folders – done Fixed!

Phil 1.21.20

7:00 – 6:00 ASRC GOES

  • Dissertation
    • Chasing TODOs
    • TODO: Add transition paragraph (ch_background.tex) – done
    • TODO: stiff, moving platform (ch_background.tex) – done
    • TODO: clarify multicellular vs individuals vs dangerous stampedes Connect the lists. (sec_biological_basis.tex) – done
  • GSAW prep
    • Tix and hotel
  • TF Dev Conf
    • Tix and hotel

Phil 1.17.20

An ant colony has memories that its individual members don’t have

  • Like a brain, an ant colony operates without central control. Each is a set of interacting individuals, either neurons or ants, using simple chemical interactions that in the aggregate generate their behaviour. People use their brains to remember. Can ant colonies do that? 

7:00 – ASRC

  •  Dissertation
    • More edits
    • Changed all the overviews so that they also reference the section by name. It reads better now, I think
    • Meeting with Thom
  • GPT-2 Agents
  • GSAW Slide deck

Phil 1.15.20

I got invited to the TF Dev conference!

The HKS Misinformation Review is a new format of peer-reviewed, scholarly publication. Content is produced and “fast-reviewed” by misinformation scientists and scholars, released under open access, and geared towards emphasizing real-world implications. All content is targeted towards a specialized audience of researchers, journalists, fact-checkers, educators, policy makers, and other practitioners working in the information, media, and platform landscape.

  • For the essays, a length of 1,500 to 3,000 words (excluding footnotes and methodology appendix) is appropriate, but the HKS Misinformation Review will consider and publish longer articles. Authors of articles with more than 3,000 words should consult the journal’s editors before submission.

7:00 – ASRC GOES

  •  Dissertation
    • It looks like I fixed my LaTeX problems. I went to C:\Users\phil\AppData\Roaming\MiKTeX\2.9\tex\latex, and deleted the ifvtex folder. Re-ran, things installed, and all is better now
    • Slides
  • GOES
    • Pinged Isaac about the idea of creating scenarios that incorporate the NASA simulators
    • Meeting
  • GSAW
    • Slides
    • Speakers presenting in a plenary session are scheduled to speak for 15 minutes, with five additional minutes allowed for questions and answers from the audience
    • Our microphones work best when the antenna unit is clipped to a belt and the microphone is attached near the center of your chest.
    • We are NOT providing network capabilities such as WiFi. If you require WiFi, you are responsible for purchasing it from the hotel and ensuring that it works for the presentation.
    • Charts produced by the PC version of Microsoft PowerPoint 2013, 2016 or 365 are preferred
    • . In creating your slides, note that the presentation room is large and you should consider this in your selection of larger fonts, diagram size, etc. At a minimum, a 20-point font is recommended
  • GPT-2 – Maybe do something with Aaron today?

Phil 11.25.19

7:00 – 7:00 ASRC GOES

  • Dissertation – more discussion
    • Added Clark’s Grounding in communication to the lit review
    • Added more to the diversity section. Need to fold ecosystem thinking in
  • Evolver – get copied state nailed down
    • That seems to be working in the test harness:
      vzfunc[0]: Zfunc
      d1={'Zfunc': 2.5, 'Zfunc_function': 'plus_func', 'Zvals1': 1.0, 'Zvals2': 1.5}
      d2={'Zfunc': 2.5, 'Zfunc_function': 'plus_func', 'Zvals1': 1.0, 'Zvals2': 1.5}
      ------------
      vzfunc[1]: Zfunc
      d1={'Zfunc': 4.5, 'Zfunc_function': 'div_func', 'Zvals1': 4.5, 'Zvals2': 1.0}
      d2={'Zfunc': 4.5, 'Zfunc_function': 'div_func', 'Zvals1': 4.5, 'Zvals2': 1.0}
      ------------
      vzfunc[2]: Zfunc
      d1={'Zfunc': 3.5, 'Zfunc_function': 'mult_func', 'Zvals1': 1.0, 'Zvals2': 3.5}
      d2={'Zfunc': 3.5, 'Zfunc_function': 'mult_func', 'Zvals1': 1.0, 'Zvals2': 3.5}
      ------------
      vzfunc[3]: Zfunc
      d1={'Zfunc': 7.5, 'Zfunc_function': 'plus_func', 'Zvals1': 3.5, 'Zvals2': 4.0}
      d2={'Zfunc': 7.5, 'Zfunc_function': 'plus_func', 'Zvals1': 3.5, 'Zvals2': 4.0}
    • Still not setting the values of the EvolveAxis History_list correctly when breeding genomes, I think
  • Fika – slides are done-ish
  • ML – seminar
    • Good point – I need to visit with each of the committee to walk them through the dissertation (possibly with slides?) some time in January. Also, use the conclusions to build a TL;DR version.
  • Meeting with Aaron – nope

 

Phil 11.7.19

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC GOES

  • Dissertation
  • ML+Sim
    • Save actual and inferred efficiency to excel and plot
    • Create an illustration that shows how the network is trained, validated against the sim, then integrated into the operating system. (maybe show a physical testbed for evaluation?)
    • Demo at the NSOF
      • Went ok. Next steps are a sufficiently realistic model that can interpret an actual malfunction
      • Put together a Google Doc/Sheet that has the common core elements that we can model most satellites (LEO, MEO, GEO, and HEO?). What are the common components between cubesats and the James Webb?
      • Detection of station-keeping failure is a possibility
      • Also, high-dynamic phases, like orbit injection might be low-ish fruit
    • Tomorrow, continue on the GPU assignment in the evolver

Phil10.29.19

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC GOES

  • Dissertation – more maps
  • CTO presentation at 2:00
    • Delayed a bit, but I think it went well. A lot of the things that Eric tried to put in place look to be resurfacing. I wonder if it will work this time?
  • Meeting with Wayne? Yep – got his signature! Need to email Nicole and see where this goes – done
  • Starting to negotiate the new-ish “expensive information” paper with Aaron M

Phil 10.28.19

Language

Capacity, Bandwidth, and Compositionality in Emergent Language Learning

  • Many recent works have discussed the propensity, or lack thereof, for emergent languages to exhibit properties of natural languages. A favorite in the literature is learning compositionality. We note that most of those works have focused on communicative bandwidth as being of primary importance. While important, it is not the only contributing factor. In this paper, we investigate the learning biases that affect the efficacy and compositionality of emergent languages. Our foremost contribution is to explore how capacity of a neural network impacts its ability to learn a compositional language. We additionally introduce a set of evaluation metrics with which we analyze the learned languages. Our hypothesis is that there should be a specific range of model capacity and channel bandwidth that induces compositional structure in the resulting language and consequently encourages systematic generalization. While we empirically see evidence for the bottom of this range, we curiously do not find evidence for the top part of the range and believe that this is an open question for the community.

Radiolab: Tit for Tat

  • In the early 60s, Robert Axelrod was a math major messing around with refrigerator-sized computers. Then a dramatic global crisis made him wonder about the space between a rock and a hard place, and whether being good may be a good strategy. With help from Andrew Zolli and Steve Strogatz, we tackle the prisoner’s dilemma, a classic thought experiment, and learn about a simple strategy to navigate the waters of cooperation and betrayal. Then Axelrod, along with Stanley Weintraub, takes us back to the trenches of World War I, to the winter of 1914, and an unlikely Christmas party along the Western Front.
    • Need to send a note for them to look into Axelrod’s “bully” saddle point

7:00 – ASRC GOES

  • Dissertation – Nearly done with the agent cartography section?
  • CTO Rehearsal – 10:30 – 12:00 done
  • ML Dinner – 4:30 fun! 20191028_173214
  • Meeting With Aaron M
    • More thinking about what to do with the paper. We decided to try for the CHI4EVIL workshop, and then try something like IEEE Spectrum. I think I’d like to reframe it around the concept of Expensive Information and Automation. Try to tie together AI weapons, spam filters, and deepfakes
      • Automation makes negotiation more difficult, locks in trajectories
      • Handing off responsibility to automation amplifies opportunities and destructive potential
      • OODA loop could be generalized if you look at it from the perspective of attention.