Category Archives: proposals

Phil 4.3.20

Temp is up a bit this morning, which, of course, I’m overreacting to.

Need to get started on State information from here: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-states.csv

Generated some favicons from here: https://favicon.io/favicon-generator/, which, of course we didn’t use

Getting close to something that we can release

GOES:

  • Update Linux on laptop and try Influx there. Nope. The laptop is hosed. hosed
  • Grabbing another computer to configure. I mean, worst case, I can set up the work laptop as an Ubuntu box. I’d love to know if Influx would work FIRST, though. Looks like I have to. My old dev box won’t boot. Backing up.
  • Installed Debian on the work laptop. It seems to be booting? Nope:
  • I guess we’ll try Ubuntu again? Nope. Trying one more variant.
  • Trying lubuntu. It uses different drivers for some things, and so far hasn’t frozen or blocked yet. It works!
  • And now the Docker version (docker run –name influxdb -p 9999:9999 quay.io/influxdb/influxdb:2.0.0-beta) works too. Maybe because the system got upgraded?
  • 11:00 IRAD Meeting
    • Send note about NOAA being a customer for simulated anomalies for machine learning

Phil 3.30.20

Today’s study in contrasts: Italy and the US:

COVID-19 projections for the US, from the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME):

IHME

Work on converting the ETS json file into spreadsheets to evaluate thresholds and labels – spreadsheet conversion is working. done! Now I need to figure out what those ETS parameters do!

Add a short bit to the D20 writeup that explains why linear interpolation isn’t the best option, and why we went with ETS – done

Work with Zach to get the website up today – working

Work this article into the exploit-space writeup: Why Is Cybersecurity Not a Human-Scale Problem Anymore?. Wow, actually, the company (Balbix) that was founded by the author (Gaurav Banga) seems to be doing most of what I was going to write about. Sent Darren a note to see if I should continue

Got a note from ProQuest saying my file needed to have blank pages at the beginning and end of the document. Fixed. And accepted!

  • Congratulations. Your submission, xxxxx has cleared all of the necessary checks and will soon be delivered to ProQuest for publishing.

Ok, back to Docker and building an InfluxDB image. Wow, that seems like a lifetime ago I was doing this

  • To save a custom image, create the container from a base image and then docker save image_name > image_name.tar. This puts it wherever you run the command in the system, Linux or Windows

#COVID-19 meeting at 1:30 today – proposal’s in. We have twitter data from January

SDaaS meeting at 4:00 today – postponed

Phil 2.14.20

7:00 – 8:30 ASRC GOES

This document describes the Facebook Full URL shares dataset, resulting from a collaboration between Facebook and Social Science One. It is for Social Science One grantees and describes the dataset’s scope, structure, fields, and privacy-preserving characteristics. This is the second of two planned steps in the release of this “Full URLs dataset”, which we described at socialscience.one/blog/update-social-science-one.

Judging Truth

    • Deceptive claims surround us, embedded in fake news, advertisements, political propaganda, and rumors. How do people know what to believe? Truth judgments reflect inferences drawn from three types of information: base rates, feelings, and consistency with information retrieved from memory. First, people exhibit a bias to accept incoming information, because most claims in our environments are true. Second, people interpret feelings, like ease of processing, as evidence of truth. And third, people can (but do not always) consider whether assertions match facts and source information stored in memory. This three-part framework predicts specific illusions (e.g., truthiness, illusory truth), offers ways to correct stubborn misconceptions, and suggests the importance of converging cues in a post-truth world, where falsehoods travel further and faster than the truth.

       

 

  •  Dissertation
    • Practice! 52 minutes, 57 seconds
    • Maybe meeting with Wayne? Nope
  • Pack, move, unpack, setup
    • Bring ethernet cables! done
    • Moved out – done
    • Moved in – not done, but ready to unpack
  • Recovered my information for GSAW and TFDev
  • Write quick proposals for:
    • cybermap – done
    • Synthetic data as a service – done
    • White paper – kinda?

Phil 1.10.20

7:00 – 4:30 ASRC PhD, BD, GOES

  • Dissertation
    • Stampedes are a form of runaway attention, and precision/recall aid that process
    • Starting on forward. Using the Arab Spring and GamerGate as the framing
  • 11:00 VOLPE Meeting
    • Pursuing the resilience proposal was well received. Next, go up and meet with the folks?
  • Install card – done! Passed the smoke test

Phil 12.24.19

ASRC PhD 6:30 – 9:30

  • The Worldwide Web of Chinese and Russian Information Controls
    • The global diffusion of Chinese and Russian information control technology and techniques has featured prominently in the headlines of major international newspapers.1 Few stories, however, have provided a systematic analysis of both the drivers and outcomes of such diffusion. This paper does so – and finds that these information controls are spreading more efficiently to countries with hybrid or authoritarian regimes, particularly those that have ties to China or Russia. Chinese information controls spread more easily to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative; Russian controls spread to countries within the Commonwealth of Independent States. In arriving at these findings, this working paper first defines the Russian and Chinese models of information control and then traces their diffusion to the 110 countries within the countries’ respective technological spheres, which are geographical areas and spheres of influence to which Russian and Chinese information control technology, techniques of handling information, and law have diffused.
  • Wrote up some preliminary thoughts on Antonio’s Autonomous Shuttles concept. Need to share the doc
  • Listening to World Affairs Council, and the idea of B-Corporations came up, which are a kind of contractual mechanism for diversity injection?
    • Certified B Corporations are a new kind of business that balances purpose and profit. They are legally required to consider the impact of their decisions on their workers, customers, suppliers, community, and the environment. This is a community of leaders, driving a global movement of people using business as a force for good.
    • Deciding to leave this out of the dissertation, since I’m more focussed on individual interfaces with global effects as opposed to corporate legal structures. It’s just too tangential.
  • Dissertation
    • H3 conclusions – done!

 

Phil 4.12.19

9:00 – 5:00 ASRC TL

  • Finished the BAA white paper(?), and asked for hours to write the full paper for the Symposium on Technologies for Homeland Security
  • These are appropriate:
    • Meaningful Human Control over Autonomous Systems: A Philosophical Account
      • In this paper, we provide an analysis of the sort of control humans need to have over (semi)autonomous systems such that unreasonable risks are avoided, that human responsibility will not evaporate, and that is there is a place to turn to in case of untoward outcomes. We argue that higher levels of autonomy of systems can and should be combined with human control and responsibility. We apply the notion of guidance control that has been developed by Fischer and Ravizza (1998) in the philosophical debate about moral responsibility and free will, and we adapt it as to cover actions mediated by the use of (semi)autonomous robotic systems. As we will show, this analysis can be fruitfully applied in the context of autonomous weapon systems as well as of autonomous systems more generally. We think we herewith provide a first full-fledged philosophical account of “meaningful human control over autonomous systems.”
    • The following is the preprint PDF of our paper on driver functional vigilance during Tesla Autopilot assisted driving: Human Side of Tesla Autopilot: Exploration of Functional Vigilance in Real-World Human-Machine Collaboration. It is part of the MIT-AVT large-scale naturalistic driving study
    • What I Learned from a Year of ChinAI
      • Finally, Chinese thinkers are engaged on broader issues of AI ethics, including the risks of human-level machine intelligence and beyond. Zhao Tingyang, an influential philosopher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has written a long essay on near-term and long-term AI safety issues, including the prospect of superintelligence. Professor Zhihua Zhou, who leads an impressive lab at Nanjing University, argued in an article for the China Computer Federation that even if strong AI is possible, it is something that AI researchers should stay away from.
  • And so ends a long, hectic, but satisfying week.

Phil 3.4.19

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC

  • Build an interactive SequenceAnalyzer. The adjustments are
    • Number of buckets
    • Percentages for each analytic (percentages to keep/discard
    • Selectable skip words that can be added to a list (in the db?)
  • Algorithm
    1. Find the most common words across all groups, these are skip_words
    2. Find the most common words along the entire series of posts per player and eliminate them
    3. Find the most common/central words across all sequences and keep those as belief places
    4. For each sequence by group, find the most common/central words after the belief places. These are the belief spaces.
    5. Build an adjacency matrix of players, groups, places and spaces
    6. Build submatrices for centrality calculations? This could be rather than finding the most common
    7. Possible word2vec variations?
      1. It seems to me that I might be able to use direction cosines and dynamic time warping to calculate the similarity of posts and align them better than the overall scaling that I’m doing now. DM posts introducing a room should align perfectly, and then other scaling could happen between those areas of greatest alignment
  • Display
    • Menu:
      • Save spreadsheet (includes config, included words, posts(?), trajectories)
      • load data
      • select database
      • select group within db
      • load/save config file
      • clear all
    • Fields
      • percent for A1, A2, A3, A4
      • Centrality/Sum switch
      • BOW/TF-IDF switch
      • Word2vec switch?
    • Textarea (areas? tabbed?)
      • Table with rows as sequence step. Columns are grouped by places, spaces, groups, and players
    • Work on Antonio’s paper got a first draft on introduction and motivation
    • BAA
      • Upload latex and references to laptop
    • Haircut! Pack!
    • Model-Based Reinforcement Learning for Atari
      • Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) can be used to learn effective policies for complex tasks, such as Atari games, even from image observations. However, this typically requires very large amounts of interaction — substantially more, in fact, than a human would need to learn the same games. How can people learn so quickly? Part of the answer may be that people can learn how the game works and predict which actions will lead to desirable outcomes. In this paper, we explore how video prediction models can similarly enable agents to solve Atari games with orders of magnitude fewer interactions than model-free methods. We describe Simulated Policy Learning (SimPLe), a complete model-based deep RL algorithm based on video prediction models and present a comparison of several model architectures, including a novel architecture that yields the best results in our setting. Our experiments evaluate SimPLe on a range of Atari games and achieve competitive results with only 100K interactions between the agent and the environment (400K frames), which corresponds to about two hours of real-time play.

 

Phil 2.6.19

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC IRAD (TL)

  • The role of maps in spatial knowledge acquisition
    • The Cartographic Journal
    • One goal of cartographic research is to improve the usefulness of maps. To do so, we must consider the process of spatial knowledge acquisition, the role of maps in that process, and the content of cognitive representations derived. Research from psychology, geography, and other disciplines related to these issues is reviewed. This review is used to suggest potential new directions for research with particular attention to spatial problem solving and geographic instruction. A classroom experiment related to these issues is then described. The experiment highlights some of the implications that a concern for the process of spatial knowledge acquisition will have on questions and methods of cartographic research as well as on the use of maps in geographic instruction. It also provides evidence of independent but interrelated verbal and spatial components of regional images that can be altered by directed map work.
  • It’s Not A Lie If You Believe It: Lying and Belief Distortion Under Norm-Uncertainty
    • This paper focuses on norm-following considerations as motivating behavior when lying opportunities are present. To obtain evidence on what makes it harder/easier to lie, we hypothesize that subjects might use belief-manipulation in order to justify their lying. We employ a two-stage variant of a cheating paradigm, in which subjects’ beliefs are elicited in stage 1 before performing the die task in stage 2. In stage 1: a) we elicit the subjects’ beliefs about majoritarian (i) behavior or (ii) normative beliefs in a previous session, and b) we vary whether participants are (i) aware or (ii) unaware of the upcoming opportunity to lie. We show that belief manipulation happens, and takes the form of people convincing themselves that lying behavior is widespread. In contrast with beliefs about the behavior of others, we find that beliefs about their normative convictions are not distorted, since believing that the majority disapproves of lying does not inhibit own lying. These findings are consistent with a model where agents are motivated by norm-following concerns, and honest behavior is a strong indicator of disapproval of lying but disapproval of lying is not a strong indicator of honest behavior. We provide evidence that supports this hypothesis.
  • Sent a note to Slack, asking for an academic plan. They do, and there are forms to fill out. I need to send Don some text that he can send back to me on letterhead.
  • Looks like I’m not going to the TF Dev Conf this year…
  • Continuing with the INSERT code
  • Meeting in Greenbelt to discuss… what, exactly?
  • Got a cool book: A Programmer’s Introduction to Mathematics
  • Got my converter creating error-free sql! t_user
  • Working on reading channel data into the db. Possibly done, but I’m afraid to run it so late in the day. I have chores!
  • Reviewing proposal for missing citations – done

Phil 2.5.19

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC IRAD

  • Got the parser to the point that it’s creating query strings, but I need to escape the text properly
  • Created and ab_slack mysql db
  • Added “parent_id” and an auto increment ID to any of the arrays that are associated with the Slack data
  • Reviewing sections 1-3 – done
  • Figure out some past performance – done
  • Work on the CV. Add the GF work and A2P ML work. – done
  • Start reimbursement for NJ trip
  •  Accidentally managed to start a $45/month subscription to the IEEE digital library. It really reeks of deceptive practices. There is nothing on the subscription page that informs you that this is a $45/month, 6-month minimum purchase. I’m about to contact the Maryland deceptive practices people to see if there is legal action that can be brought

Phil 1.22.19

9:00 – 5:00 – ASRC PhD/NASA

  • Google AI proposal is due today! DONE!
  • Next steps for financial analytics
    • Get the historical data to Aaron’s code. Need to look at Pandas’ read_json
    • Get the predictions and intervals back
    • Store the raw data
    • update and insert the lineitems – nope
    • populate PredictedAvailableUDO table
  • Big five personality test (For players and characters) Github

Phil 1.17.19

7:00 – 3:30 ASRC PhD, NASA

  • Lyrn.AI – Deep Learning Explained
  • Re-learning how to code in PHP again, which is easier if you’ve been doing a lot of C++/Java and not so much if you’ve been doing Python. Anyway, I wrote a small class:
    class DbIO2 {
        protected $connection = NULL;
    
        function connect($db_hostname, $db_username, $db_password, $db_database){
            $toReturn = array();
            $this->connection = new mysqli($db_hostname, $db_username, $db_password, $db_database);
            if($this->connection->connect_error){
                $toReturn['connect_successful'] = false;
                $toReturn['connect_error'] = $this->connection->error;
            } else {
                $toReturn['connect_successful'] = true;
            }
            return $toReturn;
        }
    
    
        function runQuery($query) {
            $toReturn = array();
            if($query == null){
                $toReturn['query_error'] = "query is empty";
                return $toReturn;
            }
            $result = $this->connection->query($query);
    
            if (!$result) {
                $toReturn['database_access'] = $this->connection->error;
                return $toReturn;
            }
    
            $numRows = $result->num_rows;
    
            for ($j = 0 ; $j < $numRows ; ++$j)         {             $result->data_seek($j);
                $row = $result->fetch_assoc();
                $toReturn[$j] = $row;
            }
            return $toReturn;
        }
    }
  • And exercised it
    require_once '../../phpFiles/ro_login.php';
    require_once '../libs/io2.php';
    
    $dbio = new DbIO2();
    
    $result = $dbio->connect($db_hostname, $db_username, $db_password, $db_database);
    
    printf ("%s\n",json_encode($result));
    
    $result = $dbio->runQuery("select * from post_view");
    
    foreach ($result as $row)
        printf ("%s\n", json_encode($row));
  • Which gave me some results
    {"connect_successful":true}
    {"post_id":"4","post_time":"2018-11-27 16:00:27","topic_id":"4","topic_title":"SUBJECT: 3 Room Linear Dungeon Test 1","forum_id":"14","forum_name":"DB Test","username":"dungeon_master1","poster_ip":"71.244.249.217","post_subject":"SUBJECT: 3 Room Linear Dungeon Test 1","post_text":"POST: dungeon_master1 says that you are about to take on a 3-room linear dungeon."}
    {"post_id":"5","post_time":"2018-11-27 16:09:12","topic_id":"4","topic_title":"SUBJECT: 3 Room Linear Dungeon Test 1","forum_id":"14","forum_name":"DB Test","username":"dungeon_master1","poster_ip":"71.244.249.217","post_subject":"SUBJECT: dungeon_master1's introduction to room_0","post_text":"POST: dungeon_master1 says, The party now finds itself in room_0. There is a troll here."}
    (repeat for another 200+ lines)
  • So I’m well on my way to being able to show the stories (both from the phpbb and slack) on the Antibubbles “stories” page

4:00 – 5:00 Meeting with Don

Phil 12.28.18

7:00 – 4:30 ASRC NASA

  • Human mind excels at quantum-physics computer game 3o6ozkvdtdarNDhGEw
  • Continuing on the proposal:
    • [Optional] What are your success metrics for the AI system (i.e., how will you know whether the system has succeeded or failed)?
      • Discuss the spectrum of success, from classification of behavior type by syntax patterns (LSTM) to human-based manifold learning (t-sne, xxx2vec, etc) for map generation, to development of new spatial neural frameworks, potentially based on grid neurons.
    • [Optional] What else we should know?
      • I want to say something about how this is based on animal studies, and how the idea of intelligence being expensive computation has to affect any kind of collective system. Still thinking about that.
      • Also, the economic power of maps, as discussed here
    • How will you sustain and grow the impact of this work beyond this grant? How could your project and its impact grow beyond what you’ve proposed in this application?
    • Need to add a brief description of each paper and include the venue and a link

Phil 12.27.18

7:00 – 11:00 PhD

  • How Much of the Internet Is Fake? Turns Out, a Lot of It, Actually.
    • Fake people with fake cookies and fake social-media accounts, fake-moving their fake cursors, fake-clicking on fake websites — the fraudsters had essentially created a simulacrum of the internet, where the only real things were the ads.
  • More proposal. With respect to bot traffic, there is standalone, monolithic and complex behaviors that can also be tracked and used to assess the underlying information. Adversarial herding is an example.
  • Ran out of steam. Hung up on these questions:
    • [Optional] What are your success metrics for the AI system (i.e., how will you know whether the system has succeeded or failed)?
      • Discuss the spectrum of success, from classification of behavior type by syntax patterns (LSTM) to human-based manifold learning (t-sne, xxx2vec, etc) for map generation, to development of new spatial neural frameworks, potentially based on grid neurons.
    • [Optional] What else we should know?
      • I want to say something about how this is based on animal studies, and how the idea of intelligence being expensive computation has to affect any kind of collective system. Still thinking about that.
      • Also, the economic power of maps, as discussed here
    • How will you sustain and grow the impact of this work beyond this grant? How could your project and its impact grow beyond what you’ve proposed in this application?
    • Need to add a brief description of each paper and include the venue and a link