Category Archives: proposals

Phil 6.29.20

ACM IUI 2021 is the 26th annual premier international forum for reporting
outstanding research and development on intelligent user interfaces.

  • ACM IUI is where the Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) and Artificial 
    Intelligence (AI) communities meet, with contributions from related fields 
    such as psychology, behavioral science, cognitive science, computer 
    graphics, design, the arts, and more. Our focus is on improving the
    interaction between humans and digital technology, by leveraging both HCI
    approaches and state-of-the art AI techniques from machine learning,
    natural language processing, data mining, knowledge representation and
    reasoning.

GOES:

  • Ping Erik about collaborative VR coding environments. Done
  • 2:00 Meeting with Vadim
    • Walked through the deep hierarchy example
    • He’s now running 4 wheels and starting to get close, though the RW speed plots are not close to the actuals. It makes me think that there is more feedback control in the satellite implementation than there is implied in the documentation.

Proposal

  • After digging into the existing text, we realized that a lot of the technical sections were flat wrong, and depended on a kind of “magical ML thinking” that should have been in our phase III. So, lots of writing.

GPT-2 Agents

  • Working on trajectory plotting
  • Fix the listbox select. I was using the wrong event. It should be like this.

ListBoxSelect

  • Aaaand then there were a bunch of weird errors. For some reason, the call to a new ListBox also calls the previous ListBox with no args(?) so I get an error. Chased down and fixed.
  • Plot main line. Done!

NodeLine

  • Plot legal connections of closest lines
    • I think this can be done by looking at the nodes that are connected to the start (current) node, then looking at the coordinates of all the children. The one that is closest to the line and between the current and the target gets added to the list
    • Plotting all the node connections so there can be a sanity check:

NodeLine

  • Use the weight of the lines to choose the lines
  • Build a narrative rutter that describes the route (Here be there stampedes!)

Phil 6.26.20

Let’s not forget that things are not going well here:

DtZ

python_data_libs

Many useful links in the replies (like Stumpy for time series)

GPT2-Agents

  • Working on plotting nodes correctly, being able to select them, then plotting closest legal moves that reach a destination
  • Got node selection working!

2020-06-26

With loaded nodes as well. I have an issue where the callback from the mouse ius happening before the selection in a list, so I need to fix that:

2020-06-26 (1)

GOES

  • 10:00 Meeting with Vadim
  • Realized that I had been too fancy to remember how to deal with commands to individual controllers. Figuring that out now – done!

Book

  • Meeting with Michelle to discuss editing – went very well. Sent her a copy of the “book” version of the dissertation

Phil 6.25.20

Latent Embeddings of Point Process Excitations

  • When specific events seem to spur others in their wake, marked Hawkes processes enable us to reckon with their statistics. The underdetermined empirical nature of these event-triggering mechanisms hinders estimation in the multivariate setting. Spatiotemporal applications alleviate this obstacle by allowing relationships to depend only on relative distances in real Euclidean space; we employ the framework as a vessel for embedding arbitrary event types in a new latent space. By performing synthetic experiments on short records as well as an investigation into options markets and pathogens, we demonstrate that learning the embedding alongside a point process model uncovers the coherent, rather than spurious, interactions.

Misinformation, Crisis, and Public Health—Reviewing the Literature

  • The Covid-19 pandemic has been accompanied by a parallel “infodemic” (Rothkopf 2003; WHO 2020a), a term used by the World Health Organization (WHO) to describe the widespread sharing of false and misleading information about the novel coronavirus. Misleading information about the disease has been a problem in diverse societies around the globe. It has been blamed for fatal poisonings in Iran (Forrest 2020), racial hatred and violence against people of Asian descent (Kozlowska 2020), and the use of unproven and potentially dangerous drugs (Rogers et al. 2020). A video promoting a range of false claims and conspiracy theories about the disease, including an antivaccine message, spread widely (Alba 2020) across social media platforms and around the world. Those spreading misinformation include friends and relatives with the best intentions, opportunists with books and nutritional supplements to sell, and world leaders trying to consolidate political power.

GPT-2 Agents

  • Well, networkx can write a gefx file that Gephi can read, but not the other way around.
  • Networkx CAN read and write gml files, though. Switching to that.
  • That seems to be working well:

gml_read_write

  • Now let’s see if we can draw it in the app
  • Things are starting to get very specific. creating a subclass
  • Pulling attributes is not obvious. Here’s how you do it for the nodes read in from gml:
    attrs = nx.get_node_attributes(self.gml_model, 'graphics')
    for key, val in attrs.items():
        print("{} = {}".format(key, val))

 

  • Loading and displaying the nodes! Next, I need to get piece data from the database. Also, since the graphics attribute can be a dictionary, it may be possible to add attributes like that to the edge data? Then I won’t need to re-access the db. Conversely, another way to do this might be to update the table in the db with positions, etc. Hmmmm

GraphNavigator

GOES

  • 10:00 Meeting with Vadim. Nope, he broke his code. Rescheduled for tomorrow

Proposal

  • Work on technical section with Aaron?

Phil 6.24.20

GPT-2 Agents

  • Starting work on the navigator app
  • Today’s progress:

TkCanvasBase

  • I think that this can be the core of the initial navigation capability for any corpus. You should be able to identify a topic on the map or in the list, and the system will figure out the most direct route (linear distance).
  • I think there also needs to be an ability to see the directly connected neighbors as well, since they might be farther away due to mapping constraints. For example, we can see that d2 is linked directly to d7, which is almost completely across the board. This is the result of the white queen making a pretty aggressive move. It’s not common, but it does happen. It might be interesting for someone working their way from arithmetic to calculus to see, for example, how Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss did it:

nearest

GOES

  • 10:00 Meeting with Vadim
    • We’re going to try to get a single RW to move the vehicle through two successive 90-degree maneuvers, then verify that everything is working correctly on the other RWs, then go to RW sets
  • 2:00 Status meeting

Proposal

Phil 4.17.20

Can You Beat COVID-19 Without a Lockdown? Sweden Is Trying

I dug into the predictions that we generate of daystozero.org. Comparing Finland, Norway, and Sweden, it looks like something that Sweden did could result in about 2,600 people dying that don’t have to:

FinNorSwe

D20

ASRC

  • IRS proposal – done!
  • A better snippet: the best way to cheat on taxes is  to deliberately lie to the IRS about what you earned over a year, what you spent over a year, and the ways you would fill out those forms. This is where “time of year” really comes into play. The IRS assumes you worked on April 15 through the 15th of the following year in order to report and pay taxes on your actual income from April 15 through the following year. I’ve put some pictures and thoughts below. There are some really great readers who have put some excellent guides and resources out there on this topic. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to leave a comment below and I will do my best to answer them.
  • Another good snippet: The best way to cheat on taxes is  to set up an LLC or other tax-sheltered company that makes up for your sloth in paying business taxes. By doing this, you can deduct the business expenses and pay your taxes at a much lower tax rate, while also getting a tax refund. So, for example, if your net operating income for 2014 was $5,000 and you think you should owe about $2,000 in taxes for 2015, I suggest you set up a  S-Corporation   for 2015 that only owes $500 in taxes. Then, you can send the IRS a check for the difference between the $2,000 difference you owe them and the $5,000 net operating income for 2015.

ASCOS

  • Finish first pass? Done! And sent to Antonio!

shortcuts

Shortcut Learning in Deep Neural Networks

  • Deep learning has triggered the current rise of artificial intelligence and is the workhorse of today’s machine intelligence. Numerous success stories have rapidly spread all over science, industry and society, but its limitations have only recently come into focus. In this perspective we seek to distil how many of deep learning’s problem can be seen as different symptoms of the same underlying problem: shortcut learning. Shortcuts are decision rules that perform well on standard benchmarks but fail to transfer to more challenging testing conditions, such as real-world scenarios. Related issues are known in Comparative Psychology, Education and Linguistics, suggesting that shortcut learning may be a common characteristic of learning systems, biological and artificial alike. Based on these observations, we develop a set of recommendations for model interpretation and benchmarking, highlighting recent advances in machine learning to improve robustness and transferability from the lab to real-world applications.

Phil 4.3.20

Temp is up a bit this morning, which, of course, I’m overreacting to.

Need to get started on State information from here: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-states.csv

Generated some favicons from here: https://favicon.io/favicon-generator/, which, of course we didn’t use

Getting close to something that we can release

GOES:

  • Update Linux on laptop and try Influx there. Nope. The laptop is hosed. hosed
  • Grabbing another computer to configure. I mean, worst case, I can set up the work laptop as an Ubuntu box. I’d love to know if Influx would work FIRST, though. Looks like I have to. My old dev box won’t boot. Backing up.
  • Installed Debian on the work laptop. It seems to be booting? Nope:
  • I guess we’ll try Ubuntu again? Nope. Trying one more variant.
  • Trying lubuntu. It uses different drivers for some things, and so far hasn’t frozen or blocked yet. It works!
  • And now the Docker version (docker run –name influxdb -p 9999:9999 quay.io/influxdb/influxdb:2.0.0-beta) works too. Maybe because the system got upgraded?
  • 11:00 IRAD Meeting
    • Send note about NOAA being a customer for simulated anomalies for machine learning

Phil 3.30.20

Today’s study in contrasts: Italy and the US:

COVID-19 projections for the US, from the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME):

IHME

Work on converting the ETS json file into spreadsheets to evaluate thresholds and labels – spreadsheet conversion is working. done! Now I need to figure out what those ETS parameters do!

Add a short bit to the D20 writeup that explains why linear interpolation isn’t the best option, and why we went with ETS – done

Work with Zach to get the website up today – working

Work this article into the exploit-space writeup: Why Is Cybersecurity Not a Human-Scale Problem Anymore?. Wow, actually, the company (Balbix) that was founded by the author (Gaurav Banga) seems to be doing most of what I was going to write about. Sent Darren a note to see if I should continue

Got a note from ProQuest saying my file needed to have blank pages at the beginning and end of the document. Fixed. And accepted!

  • Congratulations. Your submission, xxxxx has cleared all of the necessary checks and will soon be delivered to ProQuest for publishing.

Ok, back to Docker and building an InfluxDB image. Wow, that seems like a lifetime ago I was doing this

  • To save a custom image, create the container from a base image and then docker save image_name > image_name.tar. This puts it wherever you run the command in the system, Linux or Windows

#COVID-19 meeting at 1:30 today – proposal’s in. We have twitter data from January

SDaaS meeting at 4:00 today – postponed

Phil 2.14.20

7:00 – 8:30 ASRC GOES

This document describes the Facebook Full URL shares dataset, resulting from a collaboration between Facebook and Social Science One. It is for Social Science One grantees and describes the dataset’s scope, structure, fields, and privacy-preserving characteristics. This is the second of two planned steps in the release of this “Full URLs dataset”, which we described at socialscience.one/blog/update-social-science-one.

Judging Truth

    • Deceptive claims surround us, embedded in fake news, advertisements, political propaganda, and rumors. How do people know what to believe? Truth judgments reflect inferences drawn from three types of information: base rates, feelings, and consistency with information retrieved from memory. First, people exhibit a bias to accept incoming information, because most claims in our environments are true. Second, people interpret feelings, like ease of processing, as evidence of truth. And third, people can (but do not always) consider whether assertions match facts and source information stored in memory. This three-part framework predicts specific illusions (e.g., truthiness, illusory truth), offers ways to correct stubborn misconceptions, and suggests the importance of converging cues in a post-truth world, where falsehoods travel further and faster than the truth.

       

 

  •  Dissertation
    • Practice! 52 minutes, 57 seconds
    • Maybe meeting with Wayne? Nope
  • Pack, move, unpack, setup
    • Bring ethernet cables! done
    • Moved out – done
    • Moved in – not done, but ready to unpack
  • Recovered my information for GSAW and TFDev
  • Write quick proposals for:
    • cybermap – done
    • Synthetic data as a service – done
    • White paper – kinda?

Phil 1.10.20

7:00 – 4:30 ASRC PhD, BD, GOES

  • Dissertation
    • Stampedes are a form of runaway attention, and precision/recall aid that process
    • Starting on forward. Using the Arab Spring and GamerGate as the framing
  • 11:00 VOLPE Meeting
    • Pursuing the resilience proposal was well received. Next, go up and meet with the folks?
  • Install card – done! Passed the smoke test

Phil 12.24.19

ASRC PhD 6:30 – 9:30

  • The Worldwide Web of Chinese and Russian Information Controls
    • The global diffusion of Chinese and Russian information control technology and techniques has featured prominently in the headlines of major international newspapers.1 Few stories, however, have provided a systematic analysis of both the drivers and outcomes of such diffusion. This paper does so – and finds that these information controls are spreading more efficiently to countries with hybrid or authoritarian regimes, particularly those that have ties to China or Russia. Chinese information controls spread more easily to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative; Russian controls spread to countries within the Commonwealth of Independent States. In arriving at these findings, this working paper first defines the Russian and Chinese models of information control and then traces their diffusion to the 110 countries within the countries’ respective technological spheres, which are geographical areas and spheres of influence to which Russian and Chinese information control technology, techniques of handling information, and law have diffused.
  • Wrote up some preliminary thoughts on Antonio’s Autonomous Shuttles concept. Need to share the doc
  • Listening to World Affairs Council, and the idea of B-Corporations came up, which are a kind of contractual mechanism for diversity injection?
    • Certified B Corporations are a new kind of business that balances purpose and profit. They are legally required to consider the impact of their decisions on their workers, customers, suppliers, community, and the environment. This is a community of leaders, driving a global movement of people using business as a force for good.
    • Deciding to leave this out of the dissertation, since I’m more focussed on individual interfaces with global effects as opposed to corporate legal structures. It’s just too tangential.
  • Dissertation
    • H3 conclusions – done!

 

Phil 4.12.19

9:00 – 5:00 ASRC TL

  • Finished the BAA white paper(?), and asked for hours to write the full paper for the Symposium on Technologies for Homeland Security
  • These are appropriate:
    • Meaningful Human Control over Autonomous Systems: A Philosophical Account
      • In this paper, we provide an analysis of the sort of control humans need to have over (semi)autonomous systems such that unreasonable risks are avoided, that human responsibility will not evaporate, and that is there is a place to turn to in case of untoward outcomes. We argue that higher levels of autonomy of systems can and should be combined with human control and responsibility. We apply the notion of guidance control that has been developed by Fischer and Ravizza (1998) in the philosophical debate about moral responsibility and free will, and we adapt it as to cover actions mediated by the use of (semi)autonomous robotic systems. As we will show, this analysis can be fruitfully applied in the context of autonomous weapon systems as well as of autonomous systems more generally. We think we herewith provide a first full-fledged philosophical account of “meaningful human control over autonomous systems.”
    • The following is the preprint PDF of our paper on driver functional vigilance during Tesla Autopilot assisted driving: Human Side of Tesla Autopilot: Exploration of Functional Vigilance in Real-World Human-Machine Collaboration. It is part of the MIT-AVT large-scale naturalistic driving study
    • What I Learned from a Year of ChinAI
      • Finally, Chinese thinkers are engaged on broader issues of AI ethics, including the risks of human-level machine intelligence and beyond. Zhao Tingyang, an influential philosopher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has written a long essay on near-term and long-term AI safety issues, including the prospect of superintelligence. Professor Zhihua Zhou, who leads an impressive lab at Nanjing University, argued in an article for the China Computer Federation that even if strong AI is possible, it is something that AI researchers should stay away from.
  • And so ends a long, hectic, but satisfying week.

Phil 3.4.19

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC

  • Build an interactive SequenceAnalyzer. The adjustments are
    • Number of buckets
    • Percentages for each analytic (percentages to keep/discard
    • Selectable skip words that can be added to a list (in the db?)
  • Algorithm
    1. Find the most common words across all groups, these are skip_words
    2. Find the most common words along the entire series of posts per player and eliminate them
    3. Find the most common/central words across all sequences and keep those as belief places
    4. For each sequence by group, find the most common/central words after the belief places. These are the belief spaces.
    5. Build an adjacency matrix of players, groups, places and spaces
    6. Build submatrices for centrality calculations? This could be rather than finding the most common
    7. Possible word2vec variations?
      1. It seems to me that I might be able to use direction cosines and dynamic time warping to calculate the similarity of posts and align them better than the overall scaling that I’m doing now. DM posts introducing a room should align perfectly, and then other scaling could happen between those areas of greatest alignment
  • Display
    • Menu:
      • Save spreadsheet (includes config, included words, posts(?), trajectories)
      • load data
      • select database
      • select group within db
      • load/save config file
      • clear all
    • Fields
      • percent for A1, A2, A3, A4
      • Centrality/Sum switch
      • BOW/TF-IDF switch
      • Word2vec switch?
    • Textarea (areas? tabbed?)
      • Table with rows as sequence step. Columns are grouped by places, spaces, groups, and players
    • Work on Antonio’s paper got a first draft on introduction and motivation
    • BAA
      • Upload latex and references to laptop
    • Haircut! Pack!
    • Model-Based Reinforcement Learning for Atari
      • Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) can be used to learn effective policies for complex tasks, such as Atari games, even from image observations. However, this typically requires very large amounts of interaction — substantially more, in fact, than a human would need to learn the same games. How can people learn so quickly? Part of the answer may be that people can learn how the game works and predict which actions will lead to desirable outcomes. In this paper, we explore how video prediction models can similarly enable agents to solve Atari games with orders of magnitude fewer interactions than model-free methods. We describe Simulated Policy Learning (SimPLe), a complete model-based deep RL algorithm based on video prediction models and present a comparison of several model architectures, including a novel architecture that yields the best results in our setting. Our experiments evaluate SimPLe on a range of Atari games and achieve competitive results with only 100K interactions between the agent and the environment (400K frames), which corresponds to about two hours of real-time play.

 

Phil 2.6.19

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC IRAD (TL)

  • The role of maps in spatial knowledge acquisition
    • The Cartographic Journal
    • One goal of cartographic research is to improve the usefulness of maps. To do so, we must consider the process of spatial knowledge acquisition, the role of maps in that process, and the content of cognitive representations derived. Research from psychology, geography, and other disciplines related to these issues is reviewed. This review is used to suggest potential new directions for research with particular attention to spatial problem solving and geographic instruction. A classroom experiment related to these issues is then described. The experiment highlights some of the implications that a concern for the process of spatial knowledge acquisition will have on questions and methods of cartographic research as well as on the use of maps in geographic instruction. It also provides evidence of independent but interrelated verbal and spatial components of regional images that can be altered by directed map work.
  • It’s Not A Lie If You Believe It: Lying and Belief Distortion Under Norm-Uncertainty
    • This paper focuses on norm-following considerations as motivating behavior when lying opportunities are present. To obtain evidence on what makes it harder/easier to lie, we hypothesize that subjects might use belief-manipulation in order to justify their lying. We employ a two-stage variant of a cheating paradigm, in which subjects’ beliefs are elicited in stage 1 before performing the die task in stage 2. In stage 1: a) we elicit the subjects’ beliefs about majoritarian (i) behavior or (ii) normative beliefs in a previous session, and b) we vary whether participants are (i) aware or (ii) unaware of the upcoming opportunity to lie. We show that belief manipulation happens, and takes the form of people convincing themselves that lying behavior is widespread. In contrast with beliefs about the behavior of others, we find that beliefs about their normative convictions are not distorted, since believing that the majority disapproves of lying does not inhibit own lying. These findings are consistent with a model where agents are motivated by norm-following concerns, and honest behavior is a strong indicator of disapproval of lying but disapproval of lying is not a strong indicator of honest behavior. We provide evidence that supports this hypothesis.
  • Sent a note to Slack, asking for an academic plan. They do, and there are forms to fill out. I need to send Don some text that he can send back to me on letterhead.
  • Looks like I’m not going to the TF Dev Conf this year…
  • Continuing with the INSERT code
  • Meeting in Greenbelt to discuss… what, exactly?
  • Got a cool book: A Programmer’s Introduction to Mathematics
  • Got my converter creating error-free sql! t_user
  • Working on reading channel data into the db. Possibly done, but I’m afraid to run it so late in the day. I have chores!
  • Reviewing proposal for missing citations – done

Phil 2.5.19

7:00 – 5:00 ASRC IRAD

  • Got the parser to the point that it’s creating query strings, but I need to escape the text properly
  • Created and ab_slack mysql db
  • Added “parent_id” and an auto increment ID to any of the arrays that are associated with the Slack data
  • Reviewing sections 1-3 – done
  • Figure out some past performance – done
  • Work on the CV. Add the GF work and A2P ML work. – done
  • Start reimbursement for NJ trip
  •  Accidentally managed to start a $45/month subscription to the IEEE digital library. It really reeks of deceptive practices. There is nothing on the subscription page that informs you that this is a $45/month, 6-month minimum purchase. I’m about to contact the Maryland deceptive practices people to see if there is legal action that can be brought

Phil 1.22.19

9:00 – 5:00 – ASRC PhD/NASA

  • Google AI proposal is due today! DONE!
  • Next steps for financial analytics
    • Get the historical data to Aaron’s code. Need to look at Pandas’ read_json
    • Get the predictions and intervals back
    • Store the raw data
    • update and insert the lineitems – nope
    • populate PredictedAvailableUDO table
  • Big five personality test (For players and characters) Github