Phil 3.17.20

7:00 – ASRC PhD/GOES

Today’s view of the dashboard. Looking at the numbers, it’s pretty clear that China has things under control, which means that we can get an idea of what it will look like in the US on the other side. The symptomatic population was (3,111 deaths + 55,987 recovered) = 59,098. That means that the mortality rate for that (infected? symptomatic?) population (59,098/3,111) is 5.26%. The median age in China is 38.4 years. Interestingly, that’s about the same as the USA.

So, if you know 20 people who come down with symptoms, it looks like one probably won’t make it? The CDC says that between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic. So that works out to 8.5M – 11.2M fatalities? That seems really high. For a comparison, cancer and heart disease kill roughly 1.2M/year in the US.

In a fit of unbridled optimism, I’m booking vacation flights for September – done! Got to use my cancelled TF Dev tix

  • Ok, back to finishing the dissertation. Boy, it is hard to concentrate.
    • Conclusions are done
    • Working on tying things back to the literature

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