Phil 6.24.16

7:00 – 3:30 VTX

  • Thinking about Predictwise’s ostensible failure to get the Brexit right. (Brexit – PredictWise-6.24.2016). The comments are also hugely interesting. Added it to the corpus and coded it lightly. Don’t want to lose it. From the Predictwise blog:
    • Second, market did not pick up on enough idiosyncratic data in the field. Maybe this is because traders do not have the pulse of working masses? Possible. But, I go back to the first point as probably more important. This morning I have a new line of research that I am obsessed with: political impact on financial markets is under-explored and fascinating. I suspect that we underestimated the effect that the volatility of the underlying currency had on the prediction and financial markets.
  • Back to creating friction and refining that part of the contribution. I need to find that article that does fact-checking by looking at Wikipedia hops. Found it: Computational Fact Checking from Knowledge Networks
  • Writing report. Done!

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