Author Archives: pgfeldman

Phil 4.18.2025

Tasks

  • BSO – need to call
  • Start moving items out of the trailer – started. Mostly goodwill
  • Dishes – done
  • Mow lawn
  • Start house cleaning – done
  • Bills

SBIRs

  • See if I can finish off the saving and loading of the model for inference – DONE! Everything looks much better
  • Sprint slides and adjust the points – checked. It all seems reasonable
  • Write one story for next week that’s just “write SBIR deliverables”

Phil 4.17.2025

LLM use in the wild:

Had a great early season ride in the PA hills

SBIRs

  • Going to have to spend some time focusing on the final deliverables. I’m going to need to write the final quarterly report and a summary. Should be able to finish next week
  • Finished the first pass though KA! Need to find an editor

Phil 4.16.2025

This is pretty wild: Generate videos in Gemini and Whisk with Veo 2. Not sure if I have a good use case, but I think I’d like to play around with something more abstract.

Wise – done

BSO

Nice album: DVOŘÁK, A.: Greatest Melodies (arr. P. Breiner for piano)

SBIRs

  • Create a MinimumTrain.py and MinimumInfer.py in the experiments directory, and get those working with the debug data – done
    • Dataloader – done
    • Model – done
    • Training loop – done
    • Save out pth weights and structure – trickier than you would think if you want to load a model without prior knowledge of its structure
    • Load in and test
    • It should be possible to combine both where a model is trained, saved and evaluated. Then we can do a grid search of some basic hyperparamerters and keep track of the accuracy

GPT Agents

  • 3:00 Alden meeting. Ask about NIST people who might need jobs

Phil 4.15.2025

I think my plumeria died over the winter. It had stopped growing a while back though.

State Terror: A brief guide for Americans

  • In the history of state terror, the escape from law into coercion takes three forms, all of which were on display, incipiently, in the White House yesterday: the leader principle; the state of exception; and the zone of statelessness.

SBIRs

  • 9:00 standup
  • Working on the model, which is not training correctly at all. I made some simple trig data, sin(x), cos(x), sin(-x) as the input and -cos(x) as the target. This is simple, straightforward stuff. And yet, I get the following:
  • I’m going to do a rewrite from scratch and see if that version does any better. If it does, then we know the problem is in the training code
  • 3:00 Tradeshow demo
  • 3:30 catch up and coordination

GPT Agents

  • KA book
  • P33

Phil 4.14.2025

Watch for about ten seconds. Really. Stop everything and watch

Trump & Bukele Plot US Citizen Detention In Salvadoran Torture Camps, While Defying Supreme Court Via Gibberish Responses To Reporters

In other news, I had a very nice weekend of riding in the Spring-ish weather

9:00 Dentist

International driver’s license? Nope

SBIRs

  • No APL meeting today
  • Refactor config generator to us a base class
  • Read through Aaron’s notes and discuss
  • KA book if possible

GPT Agents

  • Write email suggesting the article is something from Shimei’s personal perspective that ties together her history and IS.
  • Put together summaries of the completed sections

Phil 4.11.2025

This is going to cause so much damage – deliberate and unintended (NY Times)

Checking out Google’s AI coder IDE firebase. Wow!. That took… 5 minutes

Tasks

  • Bills – done
  • Dishes – done
  • Lawn, if it doesn’t rain – raining. Lots.
  • Goodwill / Trader Joes – done / International driver’s license
  • Chores – done

SBIRs

  • Have a thought about the config generator. Make one base config class and then all inheriting classes get their own default config Dict

GPT agents

  • 3:00 Meeting. Really interesting. Lots of good content. I would love to have Shimei write something from a personal perspective that ties together her history and IS.

Phil 4.10.2025

Tasks

  • Groceries!

SBIRs

  • Need to ping T about expensis
  • 9:00 Standup
  • 1:00 RTAT

GPT Agents

  • A Survey of Social Cybersecurity: Techniques for Attack Detection, Evaluations, Challenges, and Future Prospects
    • In today’s digital era, the Internet, especially social media platforms, plays a significant role in shaping public opinions, attitudes, and beliefs. Unfortunately, the credibility of scientific information sources is often undermined by the spread of misinformation through various means, including technology-driven tools like bots, cyborgs, trolls, sock-puppets, and deep fakes. This manipulation of public discourse serves antagonistic business agendas and compromises civil society. In response to this challenge, a new scientific discipline has emerged: social cybersecurity.
  • Do Large Language Models Solve the Problems of Agent-Based Modeling? A Critical Review of Generative Social Simulations
    • Recent advancements in AI have reinvigorated Agent-Based Models (ABMs), as the integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to the emergence of “generative ABMs” as a novel approach to simulating social systems. While ABMs offer means to bridge micro-level interactions with macro-level patterns, they have long faced criticisms from social scientists, pointing to e.g., lack of realism, computational complexity, and challenges of calibrating and validating against empirical data. This paper reviews the generative ABM literature to assess how this new approach adequately addresses these long-standing criticisms. Our findings show that studies show limited awareness of historical debates. Validation remains poorly addressed, with many studies relying solely on subjective assessments of model `believability’, and even the most rigorous validation failing to adequately evidence operational validity. We argue that there are reasons to believe that LLMs will exacerbate rather than resolve the long-standing challenges of ABMs. The black-box nature of LLMs moreover limit their usefulness for disentangling complex emergent causal mechanisms. While generative ABMs are still in a stage of early experimentation, these findings question of whether and how the field can transition to the type of rigorous modeling needed to contribute to social scientific theory.

Phil 4.9.2025

A spokesperson for UMBC said in an email that four international students had their visas canceled with no prior notice or explanation.A UMD spokesperson said only that the campus was among those nationwide whose students suddenly lost their ability to legally stay in the U.S.

UMBC discovered the visa revocations during a daily audit of the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System, also known as SEVIS, said Cherie Parker, director of media relations for the university. That website is run by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to maintain information regarding student visas.

SBIRs

  • Did a lot of work on the SPIE paper
  • Read the game support request, and had a bunch of questions
  • KA book
  • 3:00 meeting? Maybe? Can’t find a link. Nope, it was in person. Had a good chat with Clay after

GPT Agents

P33 – finished the first pass through the psychology/sociology section

Phil 4.8.2025

Progress is not always a smooth or merry ride. For a few decades, nations live according to one paradigm. Then it stops working and gets destroyed. When the time comes to build a new paradigm, progressives talk about economic redistribution; conservatives talk about cultural and civic repair. History shows that you need both: Recovery from national crisis demands comprehensive reinvention at all levels of society. If you look back across the centuries, you find that this process requires several interconnected efforts. – David Brooks, I should have seen this coming

This is wonderful!

Moved more money out of stocks

Having a nice chat with Aaron M.

SBIRs

  • 9:00 Standup
  • Helped Ron with more cites
  • S&T meeting this afternoon with Aaron?
  • More KA

Phil 4.7.2025

Chart for the VIX “Fear Index” showing the last three “once in a lifetime” financial crisis’

I learned this yesterday:  Bonapartism is the term is more generally used for political movements that advocate for an authoritarian centralised state, with a strongman and charismatic leader, support for the military, and conservatism.

The reality, reported or otherwise, is that large language models are no longer living up to expectations, and its purveyors appear to be making dodgy choices to keep that fact from becoming obvious.

P33

  • Add a description of explore/exploit, and how it is a dilemma for every living thing. Kauffman and Martindale describe the strategies that human beings have developed to apply explore/exploit to culture
  • Add something to the end that the role of good government is to take the best from explore and exploit, without causing convulsive, destructive change if possible.

SBIRs

  • Helped Ron get his papers
  • Tried to clean up all the ESDT paper cruft.
  • 11:00 RTAT prep meeting – done
  • 11:30 Meeting with John. Fixed all the basic bugs, I think?
  • AI TTRP meeting. Just some preliminary stuff Maybe take a course from MORS?
  • Sizing and timing?
  • KA Book while waiting – good progress

Phil 4.6.2025

Went to the Hands Off rally in DC yesterday. It was huge. Maybe 100,000 people? Here’s my favorite picture:

Echoes of the hidden: Uncovering coordination beyond network structure

  • The study of connectivity and coordination has drawn increasing attention in recent decades due to their central role in driving markets, shaping societal dynamics, and influencing biological systems. Traditionally, observable connections, such as phone calls, financial transactions, or social media connections, have been used to infer coordination and connectivity. However, incomplete, encrypted, or fragmented data, alongside the ubiquity of communication platforms and deliberate obfuscation, often leave many real-world connections hidden. In this study, we demonstrate that coordinating individuals exhibit shared bursty activity patterns, enabling their detection even when observable links between them are sparse or entirely absent. We further propose a generative model based on the network of networks formalism to account for the mechanisms driving this collaborative burstiness, attributing it to shock propagation across networks rather than isolated individual behavior. Model simulations demonstrate that when observable connection density is below 70\%, burstiness significantly improves coordination detection compared to state-of-the-art temporal and structural methods. This work provides a new perspective on community and coordination dynamics, advancing both theoretical understanding and practical detection. By laying the foundation for identifying hidden connections beyond observable network structures, it enables detection across different platforms, alongside enhancing system behavior understanding, informed decision-making, and risk mitigation.
  • There is something in this for P33 – how simulation and legislation can support each other.

Tasks

  • TRP – done
  • SS – done
  • Fix vacuum – tried, but no good way to get to the AC cable.

Phil 4.4.2025

This is a wild thing:

  • Bills – done
  • Pay Tim – done
  • Book landscaping -done
  • AC Service – done
  • Groceries – done
  • Dishes
  • Chores – done
  • Drop off truck – done
  • SS – need to collect info
  • VFS – created an account

Phil 4.3.2025

SBIRs

  • Fixed the bugs that John found
  • MCWL meeting that went nowhere
  • The CoA SBIR didn’t make it past the second gate
  • USNA meeting – Well, we’ve had better.
  • RTAT follow-up meeting next Thursday, so the dumb slides did something!
  • Working on KA – finished the Shadow IT section

Phil 4.2.2025

Dinner with Bob!

SBIRs

  • Finished the dumb slide deck
  • Working on KA
  • Maybe sizing and timing? Nope
  • There are some bugs with trajectories that I need to work on tomorrow

What is Nostr?

  • Nostr is a protocol, designed for simplicity, that aims to create a censorship-resistant global social network.

SBIRs

  • No meeting with Ron
  • Worked on KA quite a bit. Hard to keep up with events
  • Fixed some bugs in the simulator
  • Finished the artwork for the slide. Text tomorrow