Wake up, shower, write some code. The linear estimate is now integrated with the predictions. I think that tells the story well. Rather than Italy, let’s look at Switzerland:
Now I need to put together a punch list of final issues (I’m worried most about load times and performance under high demand), get the URL(s) and publish!
Punch list is done. Zach is getting the domains.
Here’s the UI description: 
Working from home has a different rhythm. I work in segments with home chores mixed in. Today I’m doing this at 6:00, along with some coding. Then some morning exercise, breakfast, and work till noon. Ride, lunch and more work till about 3:00. By that time my brain is broken, and I take a break and do light chores. Today I may finally get my road bike ready for spring. Then simple work like commenting for a few hours. In the evenings I find I like watching shows about competent people fixing things and making them better. Bitchin’ Rides is extremely soothing.
D20:
GOES
So it turns out that I was doing everything right but the load. Here’s how it works
I need to go grocery shopping today. A friend of mine has come down with the virus. He’s in his 30’s, and I’m feeling vulnerable. I went down to the shop and dug up my painting masks. Turns out I have a few, so that’s what I’m going shopping with. Here’s why, from the NY Times:
When researchers conducted systematic review of a variety of interventions used during the SARS outbreak in 2003, they found that washing hands more than 10 times daily was 55 percent effective in stopping virus transmission, while wearing a mask was actually more effective — at about 68 percent. Wearing gloves offered about the same amount of protection as frequent hand-washing, and combining all measures — hand-washing, masks, gloves and a protective gown — increased the intervention effectiveness to 91 percent.
Podcast with BBC’s misinformation reporter: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-political-party/id595312938?i=1000470048553
D20
GOES
IRAD Meeting at 2:00
ML Group at 4:00
Today’s study in contrasts: Italy and the US:
COVID-19 projections for the US, from the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME):
Work on converting the ETS json file into spreadsheets to evaluate thresholds and labels – spreadsheet conversion is working. done! Now I need to figure out what those ETS parameters do!
Add a short bit to the D20 writeup that explains why linear interpolation isn’t the best option, and why we went with ETS – done
Work with Zach to get the website up today – working
Work this article into the exploit-space writeup: Why Is Cybersecurity Not a Human-Scale Problem Anymore?. Wow, actually, the company (Balbix) that was founded by the author (Gaurav Banga) seems to be doing most of what I was going to write about. Sent Darren a note to see if I should continue
Got a note from ProQuest saying my file needed to have blank pages at the beginning and end of the document. Fixed. And accepted!
Ok, back to Docker and building an InfluxDB image. Wow, that seems like a lifetime ago I was doing this
#COVID-19 meeting at 1:30 today – proposal’s in. We have twitter data from January
SDaaS meeting at 4:00 today – postponed
From today’s spreadsheet: countries_2020-03-28_07-38
NY Times is starting to use rates as well Some U.S. Cities Could Have Coronavirus Outbreaks Worse Than Wuhan’s
Interesting chat as an expert(?) on developing code in the future
Working on the ssh transfer in code using paramiko. This seems to be a good one.
It works!
import paramiko
filename = "C:/Development/Sandboxes/DaysToZero/data/external/countries_2020-03-28_07-38.xlsx"
remote_dir = "/home/some_place.com/d20/countries_2020-03-28_07-38.xlsx"
client = paramiko.SSHClient()
client.set_missing_host_key_policy(paramiko.AutoAddPolicy())
client.connect('ssh.some_place.com', username='some_login', password='some_password')
ftp_client = client.open_sftp()
#l = ftp_client.listdir()
#print(l)
ftp_client.put(filename, remote_dir)
ftp_client.close()
client.close()
I should try to put all the pieces together, but I am just done, and am stress-scrolling through Twitter, which really doesn’t help. Getting away from the computer for a while
Working with Zach and Aaron on the app. I think we’ll have something by this weekend
Got clarification from Wayne on some edits. Going to turn those around this morning and try to submit before COB today. Maryland is at 580 confirmed cases as of yesterday. I’d expect to see nearly 800 when they update the site this morning. Sent over all the edits. It’s in!
Yup
Updated the proposal
Found an example of diversity injection in the wild: the-syllabus.com. Here’s a story about it from The Correspondent.
Working on the parser today
Waking up to the news these days makes me want to stay in bed with the radio off
Working on automating the process of downloading the spreadsheet, parsing out the countries, and calculating daily rates. The goal is to have a website up this weekend so you can see how your country is doing.
Tasks
Got notes for Chapter 11 from Wayne. Switching gears and rolling that in. Put in changes for all the items I could read. There are a few still outstanding. I’ll submit tonight if Wayne doesn’t come back for a discussion.
Back to Docker. Need to connect to the WLS. Done!
Meetings
Stampede theory proposal deadline was delayed a couple of days
Well, I’ve got more predictions using death rates as described in this post. Based on the latest dataset from here (Github), I’ve created a spreadsheet that does a linear (least squares) extrapolation for when the number of new deaths per day drops to zero:
China is in this group as a sanity check, and as you can see, it’s very near zero, and so is South Korea. Italy, Germany, Spain, Iran, and Indonesia are currently all in the middle, with 2-3 weeks to go if nothing changes. France, the Netherlands, and Switzerland are far enough out that I think these may be low confinance values. The UK seems to be doing terribly. The worst performers are Belgium and the US, whose death rates are still going up, as indicated by the “-1” in the “days till” column.
Here are plots of the data used to calculate the table. Due to the way that excel labels axis, I don’t have dates for the x-axis for all the charts. They all end on the seme date (3/21, the last day in the dataset with the two days I need to calculate rates), but some of them have fewer tata points so that the time before the outbreak doesn’t influence the calculations:
Working on Hours for misinfo proposal
ASRC
ML Webex meeting
BART is the new BERT!
ASRC GOES 7:00 – 8:00
GOES
PhD
Tie into this as well
Some general reworking of the contributions text to reflect the slides: This also requires expansion of the current text in CH11. In particular slides 49-52 are a stronger synopsis than is provided in your CH10 discussion. Slides 53-56 are a more thoughtful framing of your contributions, both theoretical and practical (can you weave this back in your literature from CH2 to show specific knowledge contribution?). The “bookend” revisiting ofthe trustworthy anonymous citizen journalism was also more effective in the presentation than the document. Consider capturing this.
7:00 – 8:00 ASRC GOES
8:00 – 7:00 ASRC GOES
Pinged Aaron about getting together today – 3:00
Generated a new map where a stampede stops when it hits the edge
Played around with the “Curse of Dimensionality” slide
Added some background on fact-checking to the RQ slide
Start fixing Alienware
Online Conspiracy Theories: The WIRED Guide
Bringing Stories Alive: Generating Interactive Fiction Worlds
Ran through the presentation with David. He pointed out that stampedes bouncing off the edge of the environment look like flocking, so I generated a new map where the stampede gathers and runs off the edge
7:00 – 8:30 ASRC GOES
This document describes the Facebook Full URL shares dataset, resulting from a collaboration between Facebook and Social Science One. It is for Social Science One grantees and describes the dataset’s scope, structure, fields, and privacy-preserving characteristics. This is the second of two planned steps in the release of this “Full URLs dataset”, which we described at socialscience.one/blog/update-social-science-one.
